| Under the background of the accelerated process of the global economic integration and the World Trade Organization(WTO)negotiations mired in stagnation,the free trade areas such as the regional integration have became an important part of the national foreign trade policies.Regional integration organizations in different parts of the world came into being,such as the European Union,the North American Free Trade Area and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.China and ASEAN member countries signed the"China ASEAN comprehensive economic cooperation framework agreement" in 2002,established the China-ASEAN free trade area,which is the world’s most populous FTA and the largest free trade area among developing countries.China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was fully completed in 2010.By 2015,China and ASEAN signed the "the People’s Republic of China and the association of Southeast Asian nations on China ASEAN comprehensive economic cooperation framework agreement on revised and under partial agreement protocol"(hereinafter referred to as the "Protocol"),which marks the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area "upgraded version".China ASEAN Free Trade Area "upgraded version" will develop trade between China and ASEAN,increase the direct investment of both sides,accelerate the development of service trade,promote bilateral trade and investment facilitation.In the aspect of the goods trade,except for the rules of origin and trade facilitation issues,the "upgraded version"will continue to reduce the tariff level of sensitive goods,to stimulate the increase in trade volume between China and ASERN.This paper is divided into five parts to elaborate:the first part is the introduction part introducing the background and significance of the research of Free Trade Area between China and ASEAN and Free Trade Area effect "upgraded version" of literature review.The second part introduces the construction process of the upgrade version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone.It also introduces the necessity and the difference between the original free trade and upgrade version of the FTA.The third part analysis China-ASEAN Free Trade Area "upgraded version" from four aspects including the scale of trade expansion effect,geographical reforming effect,terms of trade effect and trade commodity structure adjustment.The fourth part is based on global trade analysis model..It is the empirical analysis of the impact of the tax reduction policy,which is based on the"upgraded version" of the China and ASEAN Free Trade Zone.Analysis results show that:1)the establishment of China ASEAN Free Trade Area "upgraded version" of the establishment of China and ASEAN countries brings the amount of imports and the positive effect of the expansion of the welfare level.There are positive and negative effects on the export volume of the two regions;2)"upgraded version" of the establishment of the China-ASEAN free trade area makes more trades between members and more trades between non-members;3)the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area "upgrade version" brings good trade conditions to the ASEAN countries and negative influence to non member countries.4)From the foreign trade departments of the total import and export,there is a positive impact on the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area"upgraded version" for all sectors except for textiles and clothing.The largest increase of total trade value is rice,and most the least is electronic equipment.From the perspective of China’s important trade partners,all sectors of the overall trade volume will increase,the increase of the total trade volume of mineral raw materials and other industrial value is the largest.From the perspective of China’s bilateral trade,the export trade of China,ASEAN and important trading partners is mainly focused on rice,grain,vegetables and fruits.The creation effect of ASEAN’s export trade is greater than that of the export trade of important trading partners.The innovations of this paper:Firstly study the content of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area "upgraded version" after the establishment of the trade effects of goods.And from the view of the scale of trade in goods,trade geography direction,trade conditions and trade commodity structure of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area "upgraded version" to analysis of the trade effect of four.The deficiency of this paper:(1)Because of China and ASEAN just signed the"Protocol" in November 22,2015,the specific policies of trade of goods and services and investment have not been promulgated and implemented,especially the rules of origin on trade in goods of the optimization policy.So this paper only focus on the reduction of tariff from the perspective of the sensitivity and the improvement of trade facilitation of China-ASEAN "upgraded version" of the trade accordingly,but not contains the rules of origin.(2)Because of China and ASEAN just signed the "Protocol" in November 22,2015,the specific policies of trade of goods and services and investment have not been promulgated and implemented,especially the rules of origin on trade in goods of the optimization policy and trade facilitation program.So this paper only focus on the reduction of tariff from the perspective of the sensitivity of China-ASEAN "upgraded version" of the trade accordingly,but not contains the rules of origin and trade facilitation,... |
