Research On The Trade Effect Of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area From The Perspective Of Intermediate Goods Trade

Since 1980s,the world economy has become more and more closely linked.In this context,China and ASEAN’s countries established China’s first free trade area——China-ASEAN Free Trade Area.The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has opened the way for the intermediate goods trade between China and ASEAN,In 2014,the trade between China and ASEAN reached $270.2 billions,accounting for nearly 70%of total trade.Intermediate goods trade has become the most important part of China ASEAN Free Trade Area can not be ignored.Therefore,my essay on the intermediate trade in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area might find some enlightements for the practice.Firstly,this paper makes a theoretical analysis.This paper believes that the establishment of the ASEAN Free Trade Area has brought the trade creation effect and economic scale for intermediate goods trade.This paper also analyzes how the trade of intermediate goods is affected by trade cost and investment cost.It is found that the decline of the trade cost is the rise of the intermediate goods trade,and the influence of the investment cost on the intermediate goods trade is related to the trade volume between the two sides.When the trade volume between the two sides is less,there is a complementary relationship between intermediate goods trade and investment,and there is an alternative relationship between trade and investment in the trade between the two sides.Then this paper analysis Chinese and ASEAN intermediate goods trade in the development of 1998-2014,found Chinese ASEAN intermediate goods trade is complementary,fusion between international production chain,greatly promoted the development of Chinese and ASEAN intermediate goods trade,to become the first major intermediate goods trade partner of China.Finally,this paper selects the intermediate goods import and export trade as explanatory variables,the intermediate average tariff level as explanatory variables,FDI,economic scale,distance and economic crisis as a control variable,and selects the 2003-2014 data to construct a panel data.This paper makes an empirical analysis on panel data of the above,to prove China and ASEAN intermediate goods trade is reduced because the establishment of China ASEAN free trade area caused by trade costs and rapid development.Through the comparison demonstration,it is concluded that the intermediate goods trade is more likely to be affected by the trade cost than the final goods trade.Through analysis of the status quo,the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)Chinese and ASEAN intermediate goods trade and the trade cost is negative correlation;(2)Chinese and ASEAN intermediate goods trade is affected by trade costs more easily than the final product trade;(3)intermediate goods trade and investment between ASEAN Chinese is in the stage of complementary.According to the conclusion,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions:(1)strengthen the cooperation between China and asean.Not only in the case of reducing trade costs and investment costs,but also to cooperate within the product,to achieve complementary advantages,mutual cooperation and mutually beneficial results.(2)China should actively participate in regional economic integration as a guide.In the process of being a guide,we should make full use of the experience provided by China ASEAN Free Trade cooperation.First of all,it is easy to negotiate in the field of intermediate goods,and then benefit from the field of intermediate goods to other areas,and ultimately to achieve a comprehensive free trade area.