Research On China-Russia Agricultural Cooperation Under The Background Of The Belt And Road Initiative And The Eurasian Economic Union

The contradiction between China’s huge population base and limited arable land has existed for a long time.Although my country can solve the problem of insufficient supply of some agricultural products through imports,under the background of CHINA-US trade frictions,the security of important agricultural products has to be used as the development of my country’s agricultural industry.Strategy is studied emphatically.On the occasion of the 15 th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness,Friendship and Cooperation between China and Russia,President Xi Jinping made it clear that on the basis of the achievements of economic cooperation,we will further promote the construction of the “Belt and Road” and the Eurasian Economic Union(include Russia,Kazakhstan,Belarus,Armenia,Kyrgyzstan).The proposal of the "One Belt,One Alliance" has created opportunities and channels for my country to adjust its thinking on international agricultural cooperation and mobilize agricultural industrial resources at home and abroad.Research on China-Russian agricultural cooperation under the background of the "One Belt,One Alliance" has important practical significance for the security of China’s agricultural product supply.Through the application of econometrics,industrial economics,international trade,systems engineering and other related disciplines and methods,this paper analyzes the feasibility and necessity of China-Russian agricultural cooperation under the background of "One Belt,One Alliance",and explores different cooperation modes.And put forward a cooperation strategy.This paper takes the supply and demand relationship of agricultural products in China as the research object,uses China’s macroeconomic data and some important agricultural product supply and demand data in the past 20 years,and builds a domestic agricultural product consumption demand model on the basis of macroeconomics and industrial economics through the Verhulst model related theories.Integrating the theory of monopoly advantage,investment theory of comparative advantage,PSR mechanism of agricultural product supply security,regional industrial cooperation theory and other related international direct investment theories,analyze the influence of domestic and foreign factors on the supply of agricultural products in China,and establish the supply model of domestic important agricultural products and import demand Model;forecast the supply and demand of important agricultural products in China in the next five years,innovatively put forward the concept of "apparent consumption of agricultural products",and deduced that in the next five years,the market consumption of agricultural products in China will be between US$1031.1 billion and US$1041.1 billion.Although subject to factors such as the slowdown in population growth,the saturation of domestic farmland utilization,the growth of agricultural exports,and the change in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar,the growth of domestic agricultural product consumption value has slowed down,but overall,it can be judged that my country’s agricultural product consumption market is still showing a growth trend.This article discusses the practical necessity and feasibility of China-Russian agricultural cooperation from the perspective of China-Russian agricultural industrial resources and development policies under the background of the "One Belt,One Alliance".The relative scarcity of arable land resources in my country has created a huge demand for imported "virtual arable land" and "virtual forest land";in terms of related investment and financing policies,my country also encourages agricultural enterprises to implement the "going out" strategy,and in the process of overseas investment by enterprises Provide adequate financial policy and technical guidance.Russia’s arable land resources in the Far East and Siberia are very rich,and most of them are in a "idle" state.Russia generally recognizes and encourages the behavior of "promoting development and increasing exports" in attracting foreign investment.This can also create conditions for the promotion of further in-depth cooperation in agricultural cooperation and agricultural trade between China and Russia.In the context of the "One Belt,One Alliance",China and Russia have both pros and cons in developing agricultural industry cooperation,but no matter which side they are with each other,the positive effect of agricultural cooperation is the mainstream.Therefore,from the perspective of the needs and effects of agricultural cooperation between China and Russia,the agricultural cooperation between the two parties is objectively necessary and feasible.This article studies the three common models of pure trade cooperation,investment equity cooperation,and overseas mergers and acquisitions,and establishes risk assessment models respectively.After research,the three models have their own advantages and disadvantages.The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to evaluate each model.The risk evaluation score of the investment and equity cooperation model is the lowest of the three,that is,under the background of "One Belt One Alliance",a Chinese-funded enterprise is in Russia and a joint venture with a local Russian enterprise.The cooperative model of conducting agricultural production and exporting agricultural products such as agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery to China is a relatively less risky cooperation method.Among the three models,the overseas M&A cooperation model has the highest risk evaluation score,indicating that under the background of the "One Belt,One Alliance",the risk of the cooperation model of Chinese agricultural enterprises going to Russia to acquire local agricultural production enterprises is relatively high.Finally,in view of the current status and problems of the supply of important domestic agricultural products,a China-Russian agricultural cooperation strategy under the background of the "One Belt,One Alliance" is proposed.In terms of macroeconomics,strengthening the international agricultural cooperation between China and Russia will not only directly affect domestic economic indicators,but also indirectly affect the stability of regional development.It can also better meet the diverse consumer needs of various domestic consumer groups and improve The quality of domestic agricultural products and ensuring reasonable pricing are conducive to transportation safety and strategic reserve safety.Strategies for safeguarding the safety of important agricultural products in my country include: domestic important agricultural products guarantee strategy,overseas important agricultural products guarantee strategy,important agricultural product reserve strategy and the development strategy of "hiding grain in the land".The strategies for the supply of important agricultural products under the background of the "One Belt,One Alliance" include: complementary advantages and investment promotion;establishing agricultural free trade zones;and promoting the healthy "going out" of private enterprises.Take national food security as the bottom line,adhere to both quantity and quality,implement variety guarantee,increase total supply,optimize supply structure,expand supply sources,improve supply quality,strengthen agricultural product reserves,ensure the development of agricultural product processing industry,and improve agricultural support and protection System,strive to establish a scientific,reasonable,safe and efficient supply guarantee system for important agricultural products.