Research On Risk Allocation Of Characteristic Town Project Of PPP Model Based On Risk Sharing Process

Zhejiang was the first province to construct Characteristic towns.In July,2016,the Ministry of Housing and Urban Construction,the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued:there are going to cultivate 1000 Characteristic town to the year of 2020.A hot characteristic town wind swept the country,and all over the country began a special town of research and construction.Characteristic town as an exploration of economic transformation and upgrading and the reform of supply side,it is new form of economic transformation.Sustainable and stable operation and the source of funds are the keys to the development of Characteristic town.The construction of Characteristic town with PPP model has realized the diversification of the relative body of the characteristic town,and through the establishment of the financing mode with the government guidance and the extensive participation of the social capital,on one hand it can effectively deal with the financing difficulties of the construction of the characteristic town and reduce the financial burden of the government.On the other hand,it can strengthen the management of the characteristics town' construction with the cooperation of government and social capital,which the two sides can largely show their advantages respectively,sharing interests and sharing risks.Therefore,in order to better apply the PPP model to the construction of the characteristic town,it is especially important to clarify the rights and interests of the project participants.It is also urgent to develop a reasonable risk sharing system.Based on the construction of the characteristics town of the status quo and the project risk management,this thesis conducts a research on the characteristics of the town of PPP project risk sharing.Based on the life cycle theory of the PPP project in the characteristic town,through the improved WBS-RBS method this thesis divides the risk into the pre-period risk,the construction period risk,the operation period risk and the risk of the whole life cycle,and forms the risk index of the PPP project system.In addition,combining with the actual situation of PPP project construction of characteristic town and the research results of researchers on project risk sharing,this thesis constructs the risk sharing framework of the PPP project in the characteristic town.Then,based on different processes of risk sharing,the F-ANP model of risk sharing is established to determine the proportion of risk sharing shared by government,project company and financial institution.Considering that in the actual operation of the project often occurs the risk of the subject,which is not determined in the contract,and the bargaining game model of the incomplete information under the project risk re-negotiation stage is established to determine the optimal risk-sharing ratio among the project participants.In order to validate the model,this thesis chooses the actual case to construct the F-ANP model of the risk sharing of the PPP project in the characteristic town,and uses the Matlab software to solve the optimal risk sharing ratio of the government,the project company and the financial institution with the market demand change risk as an example.Then,taking the risk of the preferential investment policy of the characteristic town as an example,the proportion of the risk sharing between the government and the project company under the bargaining game of the incomplete information is determined,which applies the model well.By establishing different risk-sharing model based on the risk allocation stage,this thesis can quantitatively define the proportion of the risk-sharing of each participant,and more effectively helps manage the risk of the PPP project in the characteristic town,and provides a certain reference for the construction of the PPP project in the characteristic town.