Evaluation Of Synergetic Development Between Forestry Industrial Structure And Forestry Economy In Fujian Province Under The Perspective Of Low-carbon Economy

Fujian Province as an important ecological barrier in southern of China,the conditions of forest development are superior,the forest resources are rich,and the forest reform system is lead all around the country.Especially in recent years,Fujian Province,closely around the goal of constructing "national ecological civilization demonstration zone",pays more attention to the green growth and harmonious development.While the synergistic development between forestry industrial structure and forestry economic is the inevitable choice to ensure that the forestry can develop rapidly,healthy and sustainably,to strive to achieve the development objectives of forestry "Chinese Thirteen Five Planning ",and to strive to achieve the target of"Ecological Province".For all this,this paper attempts to use the synergy theory to study situation of synergistic development between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy in Fujian Province from the perspective of low-carbon economy,which will have a more important significance for both the steady development of forestry production and the sustainable growth of forestry economy in Fujian Province.This paper constructs the index system of forestry industrial structure according to the aspects of forestry primary industry,forestry secondary industry and forestry tertiary industry,and constructs forestry economic index system according to three aspects——low-carbon resources,low-carbon input and low-carbon output.In addition,the paper analyzes the interacted relationship and coupling synergistic relationship between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy in Fujian Province under the perspective of low-carbon economy base on the data from 2006 to 2014.Firstly,the paper uses the improved gray-relation method to analyze the correlation between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy in Fujian Province.It is found that the forestry's three industrial structures are strongly correlated to forestry economy,whose comprehensive correlation degrees are 0.7855,0.7869 and 0.8094 respectively.The impact order of forestry industrial structure on the forestry economy is forestry tertiary industry,forestry secondary industry and forestry primary industry.The impact order of the forestry economy on either forestry primary industry or forestry tertiary industry is low-carbon resources,low-carbon input and low-carbon output,while the impact order of forestry economy on the secondary industry is low-carbon output,low-carbon input and low-carbon resources.Except that,the breeding and utilization of terrestrial wildlife,the wood manufacturing of crafts,stationery and sporting goods,and the forestry production auxiliary services are all well relevant to the forestry economy.And the flowers and other ornamental plants,the non-wood forest products processing and manufacturing,and the forestry public management as well as other organizational services are all less relevant to the forestry economy.Secondly,based on the VAR model,the dynamic relationship between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy in Fujian Province is analyzed by unit root test,Granger causality test,cointegration test,impulse response function and variance decomposition.It shows that there is a one-way causal relationship between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy in Fujian Province,and the lag value of the forestry economy can affect the forestry industrial structure in the short term.And that there is a cointegration relationship between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy,1%change of forestry industrial structure can lead to 47.3%change of forestry economy in the long process.According to the results of the variance decomposition and impulse response diagram,it can be seen that there is a positive effect between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy,and the short-term trend is strong,but long-term trend is gradually weakening.The impacts of the forestry industrial structure both on its own and on the forestry economy all dominate.Thirdly,the situation of synergistic development between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy is analyzed by the coupling coordinated model under the perspective of low-carbon economy in Fujian Province.From time point of view,the synergetic development status between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy is getting better and better in Fujian Province from 2006 to 2014.The coupling coordinated degree is between 0.4 and 0.6 in 2009 and in 2010,which go into a transition period of synergetic development,and after 2013,the coupling coordinated degree is higher than 0.8,which going into a good state of synergetic development.At the same time,combined ArcGIS10.2 software with GeoDA software,the paper carries on spatial analysis based on spatial autocorrelation theory,the results show that there are spatial differences in the synergetic development between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy in Fujian Province in 2014,the ranking of the synergetic status is Sanming City,Zhangzhou City,Nanping City,Quanzhou City,Putian City,Longyan City,Ningde City,Fuzhou City and Xiamen City,and the spatial pattern is presented that the coupling coordinated degree is high in northwest and southeast areas however low in southwest and northeast areas.The coupling coordinated degree is more than 0.6 in the Southern(except Xiamen City)and northern regions of Fujian Province,and is less than 0.55 in the central and eastern regions of Fujian Province.Spatial autocorrelation analysis found that grobal Moran's I indexs,which are from comprehensive development index of forest economy,the comprehensive development index of forestry industrial structure and the coupling coordinated degree of synergistic development between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy,are-0.078,-0.059 and-0.226 respectively in the regions of Fujian Province in 2014,showing the spatial distribution pattern of high and low,and playing the better spatial synergistic effect between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy.Finally,the paper analyzes the issues of synergistic development between forestry industrial structure and forestry economy in Fujian Province,and puts forward some development suggestions,so as to provide guidance for the development of low-carbon economy and the construction of "Ecological Province" in Fujian Province.