Research On The Demand Forecast And Diversified Supply Mechanism Of Public Housing Construction Land

At present,the housing burden of urban for low-income groups is heavier,and it is imperative to strengthen the supply of public housing.As the most important link in the construction of public housing,land supply should be the first problem to be solved.The purpose of this paper is to forecast the demand of construction land for various types of public housing from the perspective of "coverage should be".On this basis,we will formulate the medium and long-term plan for the supply of land used for public housing and the land reserve system,so as to ensure to supply the timely,adequate and effective construction land.This paper firstly analyzes the research background and significance of the paper,and combs the domestic and foreign related research results from three aspects:the public housing system and policy,the supply and demand standard as well as the land supply,laying the theoretical foundation for the follow-up in-depth study;based on family category and type of public housing,this paper builds the steps of calculating the demand of the housing construction land using the gray prediction method and the housing affordability calculation method,and carries on the calculation analysis for the Beijing city;and establishes diversified supply mechanism for the construction land of all kinds of the public housing from the supply way and the source.,on this basis,from the macro and micro perspective suggests the related policy recommendations.Finally,this paper summarizes the main conclusions,the shortcomings and prospects.The results of this research are as follows:Firstly,calculating the proportion of family groups that can not afford housing affordability is the key factor to calculate the demand of land for construction of social public housing.On the basis of three methods for measuring the ability of house affording including housing price to income ratio,HAI,buying up ability,taking Beijing as an example to calculate,the result is that low-income groups,low and middle-income groups,middle-income groups are included in the scope of housing security.Secondly,implementing the market supply way of public housing land,digging stock land from the shantytowns reconstruction of construction land,enterprises and institutions idle land,the transfer of state-owned idle land,renovation and updating of stock houses,etc;using land indicators or joint property rights way to obtain the rural collective land so as to explore the incremental construction land supply.Thirdly,suggesting the macro-policy recommendations including transforming the concept of government land finance,making the scientific land planning,improving the land reserve system and micro-policy recommendations including strengthening the supervision mechanism of public housing construction land,strictly disposing of idle land,the implementing differential management policy for supplying public housing construction land to ensure diversified supply for public housing construction land.