The Risk Of Manufacturing Supply Chain Based On Demand Uncertainty

Manufacturing is a driving force and support industry in the development of our national economy.In order to get out of efficiency trap,manufacturing enterprises have transform their idea on cost control as the core into the idea on service and benefit as the core through the supply chain management.Thus,the supply chain with manufacturing enterprises as the core has already formed a good operation pattern with a clear division in our country.However,globalization intensifies the severity of the competition.It results in the changes of internal and external environment in Chinese manufacturing supply chain,so that demand uncertainty has become more complex and difficult to control.In order to make the node enterprises notice that the uncertain factors such as consumer preferences,product life cycle will cause demand uncertainty and led to increase the supply chain risk and affect the normal operation of the supply chain,it's necessary to have a risk analysis for the manufacturing supply chain based on demand uncertainty.This paper studies the manufacturing supply chain from the perspective of demand uncertainty and does the deep analysis that how the risk caused by the changes of internal and external environment in the manufacturing supply chain affects the operation of the manufacturing supply chain through core production-oriented manufacturing enterprises as the starting point.On this basis,proposes the corresponding risk control strategies.The paper mainly includes the following aspects:The first part describes the research background and has a brief review of the relevant literatures.And then explains the significance of this paper,the research content,technology route and innovation points.The second part is an overview of the theory which builds a theoretical basis for research on the risk of manufacturing supply chain from the perspective of demand uncertainty.The third part summarizes 20 major risk factors of the manufacturing supply chain based on demand uncertainty by consulting published papers,field investigation,and telephone interviews,etc.And then has a classification for the risk factors by principal component analysis.Part IV establishes a risk evaluation indexes system of the manufacturing supply chain based on demand uncertainty and then has a risk evaluation model simulation based on Bayesian network by GeNIe software.The result of the model simulation shows the level of risk and the sequences of causing the risk.Part V proposes specific strategies to control risk based on cooperative game theory,according to the risk evaluation results.Part VI chooses the supply chain of H Group as an example to verify the applicability of the risk evaluation indexes system and the operability of the risk evaluation model based on Bayesian network,based on the principle of linking theory with practice.The innovation points are as follows in the paper.The paper tries to study the risk of manufacturing supply chain from the perspective of demand uncertainty and summarizes the 20 major risk factors through core production-oriented manufacturing enterprises as the starting point.Based on the classification for the risk factors,the paper establishes a practical risk evaluation indexes system of the manufacturing supply chain based on demand uncertainty.These can not only make up the shortage of the existing literatures which pay little attention to the manufacturing supply chain and focus on the certain supply chain system,but also provide a guidance for other domestic industries in supply chain risk management.