The Management Of Supply Chain Risks Led By Demand Uncertainty And Supply Uncertainty Considering Two Buying Oppotunities

Impacted by the popularity of "outsourcing" strategy and the trends of globalization, for any enterprise nowadays, the supply chain has occupied the key position influencing the operation costs and efficiency. Since the supply network is more and more complex and dynamic, the risk for any partner of the supply chain could be transferred to the others, so as to impact the whole supply chain system As a result, it is necessary to study the management of the typical supply chain operational risks to guarantee the profitability and continuity of a supply chain.To study the management of the typical supply chain operational risks, the expected profit models of all the supply chain partners in a two-stage supply chain consisted of one supplier and one retailer are analyzed accordingly in the supplier-dominated system, retailer-dominated system, and the supply chain-dominated system. By adopting a new algorithm combined with the Monte-Carlo simulation, the optimal decision policies are studied. The impacts of fluctuations of demands parameters and production cost to the expected profits of the supply chain partners are discussed in supply chains adopting different cooperation models. Moreover, the control and management of typical supply chain operational risks are analyzed in the situation where the supply chain decisions are made based on the optimal profit of one partner and the situation where the supply chain decisions are made based on the optimal profit of the whole supply chain. The cooperation model selection advice is provided and an improved revenue sharing contract is designed accordingly.It is found that compared with demand distribution width and production cost, the expected profits of the supply chain partners are more sensitive to demand price elasticity coefficient and market capacity. And bearing the risks does not always bring the high cost, on the contrast, under the influence of demand and supply uncertainty, to cooperate the supply chain and bearing the according cost may bring higher profits. Moreover, the revenue sharing contract designed in this paper could be used as a way of the control and management of typical supply chain operational risks and make each supply chain partner achieve Pareto improvement. The results of this paper could be used for the enterprises to calculate the impact of the typical supply chain operational risks, or to be a reference for the selection of the ways to control and manage typical supply chain operational risks.