The Research On The Urban Scale Of Cheng Du-Based On The Model Of Urban Basic Sector

Since the reform and opening up,all kinds of large and medium-sized cities in China have developed rapidly,and the process of urbanization has been accelerating.As the center of the gathering of various economic and social factors,the city is the space carrier of the urban economic and social development.With the development of urban economy,it needs a reasonable urban population scale,which is one of the urgent problems to be solved in the rapid development of modern cities.Since the reform and opening up,China's urban scale policy has undergone several adjustments,under the macro-control of the national policy,the city should be based on the actual situation to plan urban scale development strategy.As a core theory of city economics,Urban economic base theory can not only explain the development of city economy,but also can be used to explore the mechanism of the city,and manifest the law of development of the city scale,which can provide a theoretical basis and practical methods for each city to make policy of city scale according to local conditions.On the basis of previous studies,this paper expounds the relationship between city scale and city basic sector,according to ten years data of Chengdu's urban population and employment,paper explains the basic sector how to affect the scale of city,and a grey system model is used to predict the scale of Chengdu City in 2020.The first chapter is the introduction,describes the background and significance of the thesis,and summarizes the achievements and research status at home and abroad,Including the relationship between urban scale and industrial development,city scale prediction,the model of city basic sector,and put forward framework and methods,innovations and deficiencies of this paper.The second is the definition of the concepts and theoretical analysis.According to the theory of urbanization and Petty-Clark,the paper points out that it is the ability of urban industrial development to absorb the number of the labor force to affect the size of the future city size.Based on the theory of agglomeration economies and economies of scale,this paper explains that the expansion or reduction of the size of the city will bring about the change of the urban agglomeration efficiency and scale efficiency,which will affect the development of the city.According to the theory of division of labor and the theory of export base,it explain that each city has comparative advantages,has different labor division and plays a different role in the scale of the city.Based on the theoretical analysis of the first two chapters,the three chapter analyzes the current situation of the urban scale of Chengdu city from several aspects.Chengdu as a large city in the western region,the level of urbanization is high,the economic development is fast,the construction industry,real estate industry,information industry and other industries have obvious advantages.The model of urban basic sector shows that the basic department affect the development of the city scale,the study found that Chengdu city basic sector mainly concentrated in the second and three industries,while the third industry development of Chengdu is still lagging behind Guangzhou and Beijing.The fourth chapter is the key chapter of this article.The research is mainly divided into four parts:the first is to focuses on the model of urban basic sector,and derives the static and dynamic models of urban scale growth;the second is to distinguish base and non-base sector by using the location quotient;the third is to measure the basic sector of each coefficient,explain the basic sector how to influence the city scale,research shows that an increase in basic sector employment,will make the supporting sectors average increase of 0.18 employees,the public service sector average increase of 0.37 employees and the average increase of 1.14 people in custody;The fourth uses of Verhulst to forecast 2020 Chengdu basic sector employees,which will reach about 400.17thousand,and supporting sector employees will reach about 68.03 thousand,the public sector employees reach about 141.06thousand,total employment reach about 609.26thousand,raising population reach about 563.28 thousand,the total scale of the population will reach 1172.54 thousand.The fifth part is the comparative analysis and countermeasures.compared with the "Chengdu new urbanization plan 2015-2020 years",the development of city basic sectors absorb smaller population,If we want to achieve the development of city planning objectives,we need to continue to support the development of basic sector industries,enhance the ability to absorb employment and the capacity of bearing population of urban economy,improve the cultural charm of the city.The sixth chapter is the conclusion and prospect,and points out the direction of further research in this paper.