Research On The Impact Effect Of Cargo Insurance To The Goods Import And Export Trade In China

With the advancement of the national strategy of "area",China is playing an increasingly important role in the process of the development of international shipping market.Especially in recent years,the rapid development of China’s import-export trade highlights the necessity of the construction of modern international cargo insurance system and the objective requirements in China.As one of the most ancient over maritime trade loss allocation and compensation mechanism of risk management,cargo insurance could be able to share and avoid marine trade and transport all aspects of the risk,for shipping and related trade enterprises to provide professional third party risk management solutions,and it will enhance the anti-risk ability of the maritime shipping industry and international competitiveness effectively.As with most strongly linked insurance business to the development of international trade,there exists the relationship between interdependence and mutual promoting development.However,the existing researches results mainly analyzed the development of cargo insurance for the perfection of shipping insurance market theoretically,as well as to the import-export trade and economic and social development has a significant economic and strategic significance,less through the data to support empirical studies of cargo insurance and the quantitative relationship between the import-export trade.First of all,in this paper,based on the global cargo insurance market development present situation,through comparing various countries cargo insurance related indicators of the market,combined with the status quo of China’s economic and social development,and points out the great potential of cargo insurance development in our country.Then,this article adopts the research methods of empirical analysis,through the whole subset regression to select the three main factors influencing the total import-export trade in our country are:Gross domestic product(GDP),the national port cargo throughput and cargo insurance premium income,and the cointegration test method and SVEC model to estimate the four factors to quantify the interaction relationship between.Through this article analysis the following conclusions:Firstly,if we take the total import-export trade as the dependent variable to build an empirical model,the independent variable used the cargo insurance is more significant than the effect of export credit insurance.Secondly,cargo insurance premium income and total import-export trade in our country there exists a stable long-term co-integration relationship,one of the import and export volume growth is the granger reason of cargo insurance premium income,to promote the growth of cargo insurance premium income has a significant leading role.In addition,the total import-export trade and cargo insurance premium income has obvious positive leading role between each other,change the Gross domestic product(GDP)of the total amount of import-export trade and the impact of cargo insurance fluctuation is bigger.Among them,the influence of the Gross domestic product(GDP)in the short term will continue to improve,occupied the main position in all kinds of influence factors,in the long run will be small,and then keep the influence degree of relative stability;And cargo insurance premium income growth both in the short-term fluctuation effect and long-term effect relations,will create a positive impetus to the change ofthe total amount of import-export trade,and the effect of increased gradually,and in the long run will remain relatively stable state;When the range is larger,the system exists to equilibrium automatic correction function,to keep the whole model in a relatively stable state.Finally,the development of cargo insurance in our country at present stage is still in a lower level,but the cargo insurance of our country has a huge development potential,as China’s economic and social development and international shipping center system constantly improved,cargo insurance in our country no matter from the scale and the quality will be a great leap.Comprehensive consideration of this article research results,this paper mainly in the selected topic,research methods and research conclusion three aspects to innovation.In terms of research topic,in this article,through the method of quantitative analysis,makes up for the domestic in quantitative cargo insurance for import-export trade influence degree,improve the degree of impact on this kind of recognition and guiding significance in the process of actual business operation decision-making.Research methods,this paper reference SVEC model in terms of financial volatility and macroeconomic factors analysis,will first SVEC model references to the cargo insurance impact on import-export trade,with the analysis of impulse response function and variance decomposition method to cause the dynamic impact effect of import-export trade fluctuations,verify the impact of sustained,heterogeneity and significant.Research conclusions,this paper holds that the losses of cargo insurance in our country now is caused by a variety of historical reasons,is a short-term phenomenon,but the cargo insurance fluctuation is the development trend of rising,so have positive expectations for the future.In addition,this article will cargo insurance and export credit insurance in the unified model for measurement at the same time,in order to model estimation method to quantify the impact of practice,is an innovation of this article.However,the research conclusion of this paper are established on the basis of macroeconomic data,although has combined with the actual business operation as much as possible,but due to the different regions have different scale and development strategy,the company’s business,such as a variety of reasons,the study conclusion may be a little difference with part of the company’s actual results,this could be the deficiency of this article,also will be direction then continue to study in this paper.