The Quantitative Analysis Of Influencing Factors On Guangdong’s Value Of Import And Export

With the improvement of Economical Globalization, the stable development of foreigntrade has become an important guarantee of economic growth in all countries and regions.Since the reform and opening-up, Guangdong’s import and export has been far ahead of otherprovinces, its import and export volume has a great impact on China’s economy, therefore,study the influence factors to import and export of Guangdong Province has much practicalsignificance.First of all, by correlation matrix and modified sample coefficient of determination, weget: the real effective exchange rate index (REER), the regional gross domestic product(GDP)and foreign direct investment (FDI) have high correlations with import and export tradeof Guangdong Province (Y), fit of the regression model is also high. Moreover, Grangercausality test shows that REER, GDP, FDI are reasons of Y, that is to say, takeREER,GDP,FDI as explaining variable, Y as explained variable is reasonable. Second,Establish regression model for prediction of Y. First, the stationarity of these dates is test byADF unit root test; results show that they are all first-order stationary sequences,co-integration analysis can be carried out. Then, establish regression model. Results show themodified fitting degree of the model is99.55%. Again, test the residuals, results show that it isnon-auto correlative and stable, which means that there exists a long-term and stableco-integration relationship between these four sequences. Last, test the model, results showthat the common influence and separate influence of GDP, FDI, REER to Y are all significant.Third, analyze short-term and dynamic relationship between the variables. Based on the VARmodel of three orders lagged, impulse response analysis is used to explain when an impact isgiven to explanatory variables, the influence to explained variable. Results show, GDP, FDI,REER have obvious impact on Y, FDI’s influence is more significant.