| Since China formally entered the aging society in 2000, the changing population structure has significant impact on the industrial structure. Under the background of the "new normal" theory, China has put forward the vision of speeding up transformation of the mode of economic development and fostering strategic emerging industries and services. The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of the aging to the industry structure. The article adopts both theoretical and practical analysis, discusses the mechanisms how aging may affects industry structure, specifically analyzes how aging impacts industrial structure through the factors of supply, demand and total factor productivity. The empirical analysis based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces from 2000 to 2012, by using the model of a dynamic panel, after controlling for per capita economy, material capital, human capital, economic openness, technological progress, government policy behavior, and other control variables, under the condition of using the GMM analysis system, respectively, with the proportion of aging population, elderly dependency ratio and children’s dependency ratio as the proxy variable measure the effect of aging on the industrial structure. In this paper, we found that the ageing of population has a significant impact on the structural change, the impact on three industry are different. Specifically, the aging of the population has a negative effect on both the primary industry and the second industry of China, while positively affects its third industry. |
