Spatio-temporal Analysis Of Liver Cancer Mortality And Environmental Risk Factors In Lingbi County

BACKGROUND According to the data of 2004-2006 retrospective survey of death in Lingbi,compared with the level of death,1970s of liver cancer mortality rates lower than the national 22.70%in the area,but in recent 30 years showed an upward trend,it was 2.6 times more than the national increase,liver cancer mortality rates higher than the national 64.4%,liver cancer mortality rates was at a high level,and has become the region's most serious malignant tumor.Also,Huaihe River is the one of the worst water pollution rivers in China.,the tributaries of it located in lingbi County(such as Kuihe River,Suihe River)were also heavily contaminated.OBJECTIVE Analysis the date of liver cancer standardized mor-tality rates and spatial characteristics from 2005 to 2013 of lingbi,Anhui province,discussion on environmental risk factors affecting the high in-cidence of liver cancer mortality,provide scientific evidence for effective liver cancer intervention,and related functions to optimize the allocation of resources,making scientific health policy of liver cancer control.METHODS Collecting and collating the data of Liver cancer s-tandardized mortality rates from 2005 to 2013 of Lingbi,Anhui Province,data of environmental medical research data form 2007 to 2008 and relat-ed geographic information date.made death data into 3 groups by time,and then spatialized the above date;Using BYM model spatial,clustering analysis methods and generalized linear mixed model.RESULTS Liver cancer standardized mortality rates from 2005 to 2013 of Lingbi just liked the crude death rate,had a decreasing trend in general.The high smoothed RR of liver cancer death rates were at the north-east of lingbi,and this trend increased over time.The low at the South-west of lingbi,and this trend decreased over time.Globe Moran's I of 3 groups were 0.32,0.45 and 0.55,p values were less than 0.05,liver cancer had the spatial clusters of RR.Calculated the Globe Getis-Ord G from 3200m to 15000m by 100m,and that showed there was spatial clusters of RR and this trend increased over time.Local Getis-Ord Gi*showed that the hot spot at the East-Central area,near the bifurcation of Kuisui river.The result of liver cancer RR and the distance from rivers showed that,it was different between the villages far from the river and the villages near the river,the nearest village was higher than the far and the farther villages.The high mortality of liver cancer was along the kuisui riverCONCLUSION Liver cancer standardized mortality rates from 2005 to 2013 of Lingbi,Anhui Province had a decreasing trend in general.The spatial distribution of liver cancer standardized mortality rates was not uniform,there had been significantly positive spatial autocorrelation.The East-Central area,near the bifurcation of Kuisui river had a hot spot area of liver cancer deaths.Spatial clustering of liver cancer standardized mortality rates increased with time.the villages closer to the river had high rate of liver cancer mortality.the results suggest that liver cancer mor-tality has correlation with the contaminated water distribution in Lingbi County.