The Study On Risk Control Optimization Model For Provinci Grid Power Purchase Under The Low-carbon Economy Environment

Rapid economic development leads to a dramatic increase in energy consumption.The energy consumption growth has also led to the rising of CO2 emissions, which makes our country facing with severe international pressure of reducing emissions. In the future, the focus of social development will be transferred from the current economic development to balancing the economic development and the environmental abatement. That’s to say, develop the low-carbon economy. Under the low-carbon economy, grid power purchase transaction is facing with the risk factors in traditional purchase electricity environment and carbon emissions cost, which affects the applicability of traditional risk management approach. Therefore, studying on how to control the grid power purchase transaction risk of low-carbon economic environment will have important significance in grid security and stability.The main work of this is thesis :based on purchase transactions risk factors of grid companies in the traditional environment, the thesis analyzed new risk factors of electricity grid companies under low-carbon economy and multi-link relationships of risk factors with ISM analysis model,provided the whole idea for power purchasing risk prevention and control of Power Grid Corporation. Secondly, the thesis analyzed the cost influencing factors of the power grid company under the low-carbon economy environment and constructed the corresponding risk measurement model. Thirdly, in order to obtain power purchasing risk control optimization strategies of power grid corporation the thesis constructed diversified portfolio purchasing electricity optimization model and discussed the influence of carbon emissions cost on portfolio purchasing electricity scheme. Finally, in order to analyze the influence of different risk attitudes on the purchasing strategies of Power Grid Corporation, the thesis introduced CVaR method to construct the CVaR optimization model for grid company purchasing risk management and discussed the optimal purchasing strategies under the risk of neutrality and non-neutrality.The simulation results show that the proposed risk control optimization model for provincial grid power purchase under the low-carbon economy environment can identify,analyze and prevent provincial grid power purchase transaction risk.