Research And Application Of Strategic Mineral Resources Economic Security Assessment

The paper derives from the humanities and social science planning projects of ministry of education which named “Risk Assessment Technology Research of the Important Mineral Resources Overseas Development Strategic District Selection”(Item Number: 12YJA790208).The paper takes the strategic mineral resources economic security assessment as the research object.On the basis of detailed review of the research progress of strategic mineral resources and the mineral resources economic security assessment methodologies,comprehensively study on the strategic mineral resources security assessment with the application methods of the combining theoretical research and case analysis,combining qualitative and quantitative research.The main contents and conclusions of the paper are as follows:Firstly,this paper detailed reviews the related research achievements of strategic mineral resources and summarizes the research methods and achievements of mineral resources security assessment at home and abroad.Secondly,analyze the supply and demand situation of major strategic mineral resources such as copper,iron and aluminum,etc.Put forward major factors that affect the strategic mineral resources demand.Establish a scenario model of copper demand in China based on BP neural network and the future demand of copper resources situation of our country was set;calculate the demand scenario of copper from 2020 to 2030 in China.Thirdly,based on the identification of the factors that affect the strategic mineral resources economic security,establish an assessment indicator system of strategic mineral resources economic security which contains 4 first level indicators and 9 second level indicators.Fourthly,using the established model evaluate the economic security degree of copper resource from 2000 to 2014 in China,and predict the security level of copper resource from 2016 to 2017 by using the methods of time series analysis.According to the evaluation result,the paper put forward countermeasure and suggestions of the utilization and protection of copper in China.The conclusion shows that: the scenario analysis model and the economic security assessment model established in this paper both have sound theoretical basis and worth generalization,which can provide rational theory basis and decision-making reference for the economic security research of strategic mineral resources in China.