| With the sustained and rapid economic development in China, the domestic consumption of mineral resources is also increasing rapidly. Especially in recent years, the contradiction of resource shortage restricting the economic development is becoming increasingly prominent. A serious shortage of oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, iron ore and other mineral resources has a direct impact on the sustainable development of China’s economy. Therefore, in order to ensure the national economy to keep a healthy and sustainable developing, the status and future of China’s mineral resources must be re-understood. However, only the technical and economic factors are considered in the traditional evaluation of mineral resources in China, and mainly reflects in tactical evaluation, which makes people to have a single-faceted pursuit of the value and economic benefits of mineral resources, the environment, the economy and social development are not closely linked with the resources. The loss which is brought about by the damage of resources development to the environment, and the economic structure, social benefits and other factors have not been taken into account, which has been unable to meet the requirements of sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, the strategic evaluation of mineral resources which reveal the internal interaction mechanism of mineral resources and regional sustainable development strategies is particularly important. Strategic evaluation of mineral resources is to analyze the scientific configuration issue from the macro-level of the mineral resources from the perspective of the national strategic management, the content of which includes the time-space coordination and sustainability of mineral resources, and the effectiveness and security of supply of mineral resources. The strategic positioning of mineral resources evaluation is, from the perspective of time-space coordinating, evaluating the supply security risk of mineral resources by selecting reasonable evaluation model and methods, and proposing risk control measures to build a sustainable supply and security system of mineral resources.This paper establishes of a comprehensive mineral resource strategic evaluation model under the general guidelines for the sustainable economic and social development, applying of which in an empirical research on the time-space coordination process, supply security risks and environmental implications which is the most critical for the sustainable use of coal resources, and explore countermeasures to promote the sustainable use of mineral resources, which will have a positive impact for further improving the policy of national mineral resources development and utilization and promoting the safety of the nation’s mineral resources and sustainable development.The dissertation is divided into seven chapters, the main content of each chapter is as follows:Chapter one is Introduction. This chapter covers the background, purpose and significance of the research, carried out a systematic review of literature and research on sustainable development and security of mineral resources at home and abroad, introducing the main content, the research methodology and the main contribution and innovation of the paper.Chapter two is the Theoretical Basis of the Strategic Evaluation of Mineral Resources. From the perspective of the natural resources and economic growth theory, sustainable development and utilization theory of mineral resources, risk management theory, systems theory, collaborative theory, this chapter reveals a theoretical basis of establishing the mineral resources strategy evaluation system by elaborating the significance and role mechanism of mineral resources in the economic growth, the optimal dynamic control and optimal depletion of natural resources as well as the national macro-strategic management.Chapter three is the Connotation and Model of Strategic Evaluation of Mineral Resources. Based on the inner mechanism of mineral resources and regional sustainable development strategies, policies tendency for sustainable development of mineral resources and the corresponding goals and means elaborated, this chapter constructs a strategic evaluation model of mineral resources which covers the evaluation system of the time-space evolution, protection risk assessment system, and environmental impact assessment system of mineral resources, and describes the characteristics and basic types of strategic evaluation of mineral resources, elaborating the system method of a strategic evaluation of mineral resources by using of systems theory principle.Chapter four is Comprehensive Evaluation in Time-space Evolution of China’s Coal Resources. Coal resources in time-space evolution are divided into the time course and spatial process. The time process generally refers to the growth in demand for coal resources in the area of the country or region, and change trajectory; spatial processes usually refers to the supply of coal resources in an area ranging from the regional to the process of the country and even to continue to expand abroad. Practical experience of many countries shows that only by the way that the two processes of time and space are Harmonious and unified can the development of coal resources in a country considered to have been balanced. The coal time-space evolution of the supply of coal resources is a trajectory which continues to meet the economic development of coal resources consumption growth and consumption structure change. It is mainly reflected in the change of consumption, growth rate and spatial pattern, if take the process as changes in consumer demand for coal resources in the process of spatial and temporal evolution of coal resources. Specifically, the total volume indicators are quantity indicators, relative indicators and incremental indicators to analyze the changes in the consumption of coal resources. Space region to meet the growing demand for coal consumption to protect the space from the area to the area outside the scope of the expansion process, the building of the regional coal resources supply system from localization to open Specifically, flow indicators, transportation changes in the distance, mode of transport, the transport direction, the transport channel support capabilities indicators from the spatial distribution, type and relationship relative indicators describe the different scales and incremental indicators analysis of the spatial variation of the process of coal consumption. In general the development of the time process and the spatial process of coal resources are coordinated, but it has obviously certain stage:at the beginning stage, there is a small amount of coal consumption growth and corresponding average transport distance. Later there have been a period of rapid development and the time process and spatial process have been developed rapidly; Later on, the time process is growing rapidly, but the growth of spatial process has slowed, show that there is a weakening trend of the ability for the spatial process to adapt to the time course. In order to improve the time-space coordination of coal resources, and establish of the time-space coordination support system of coal resources in China, three of the constructions should be strengthened. First is the development of the coal transport system, the second is the coordination of interests between the regions and the third is formation mechanism of the price in coal market.Chapter five is the Risk Evaluation of Coal Security in China. As an important strategic issue connected with the nation’s economy development and national security, the establishment of risk evaluation system for mineral resources security, which to picture the risk rating of China’s mineral resource security now, has been the ultimate part for china’s mineral resource strategic evaluation. And the definition of "Risk of Coal Security" means the uncertainty of satisfying the demand of China’s economy and the possible consequential influence for China’s economy development goal in the process of China’s modernization. This chapter focuses on the five factor analysis that can influence the risk of China’s coal security. Having drawn the lessons of the theories and methods for mineral security index system home and abroad, the author applies analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze the risk of coal supply. The authors takes these five aspects, including mineral resource, manufacture, transportation, market and consumption and other eleven derivational indexes into having a elementary frame for the risk index system of coal security. Taking the reference of some specific methods of comprehensive risk assessment, the authors has established the interpretation on how to construct the comprehensive risk assessment of coal security and assessment model of these influential elements involved. Having applied the comprehensive index system for risk assessment of coal security, the author takes23provinces,5autonomous regions and4municipalities for the analyzing objects and then evaluates the risk of coal security of these objects mentioned above. The evaluations are as the follows, the average of national comprehensive risk of coal security can be rated as level IV, which means a fairly low level; the highest one is Tibet, which locates in level Ⅱ; Tianjin Municipality, Shanghai Municipality, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Hubei Province, Guangdong Province and Hainan Province all locate in level Ⅲ, which is slightly better than level Ⅱ; Beijing Municipality, Hebei Province, Liaoning Province, Jilin Province, Anhui Province, Fujian Province, Jiangxi Province, Shandong Province, Hunan Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region all locate in Level Ⅳ; while Shanxi Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Heilongjiang Province, Henan Province, Chongqing Municipality, Sichuan Province, Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, Shanxi Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region all locate in Level V, which means of the lowest risk of coal security. The assessment mentioned above demonstrates a right picture for the current situation and justifies this assessment system. Through the process of the analysis of the associated elements that can influence the risk of China’s coal security, there are still something we should pay much attention to. That’s to say, though the comprehensive risk of the national coal security is still low, however, owing to the coal plays an rather important role in the whole energy resources supply, it’s necessary to take measure for the consequential problems arising from the risk of national coal security so that the domestic energy resources can be stabilized and an solid foundation for the prosperous development of the whole national economy can be built.Chapter six is the Environmental Impact Assessment of China’s Coal Resources. In the process of development and utilization of coal resources in China, although a lot of material wealth of society generated, while the environmental quality of China is also implicated. Under the guidance of the ever-expanding demand, the supply of coal resources and the increase in consumption has led to air pollution, acid rain, toxic contamination of surface water, abandoned radioactive substances as well as global climate change. Constraints caused by these problems has become a decisive factor restricting the sustainable use of coal resources. For atmospheric pollution of every single type of energy and mineral consumption, the increase in coal consumption is the main reason of causing the increase in China’s sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions and soot emissions. However, for the extent of the impact on the emissions of the three pollutants, there is a most biggest impact of coal consumption growth on the soot emissions growth, followed by the growth of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions. The growth of oil consumption is one of the reasons for the increase of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and soot emissions in China, but not the main reason. For atmospheric environmental impact caused by the growth in oil consumption, there is a most biggest impact of the oil consumption on the sulfur dioxide emissions growth, followed by growth of carbon dioxide emissions, and the impact on the growth of soot emissions is the smallest. For growth of natural gas consumption, there is a subtractive effect for sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions and soot emissions in China, and the effect is most significant in reducing soot emissions, followed by sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, atmospheric pollution in China has a trend of industry, urban and regional concentration. Adjust the energy structure, promote "green" energy consumption structure, strengthen the recognition of the health risks of the consumption in coal resources, take a full implementation of the pollutant abatement, and use of market-oriented measures to promote the internalization of environmental costs in coal consumption, has become a practical approach to further improve the environment quality and public health conditions to China.Chapter seven is the Summary and Outlook. This chapter looks into the future of the research based on the summary of the contents and basic points of the full text. |
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