Study On Risk Evaluation Of Strategic Selection Of Overseas Copper Mineral Resources Development

This paper comes from the humanities and social sciences research programme fundsprojects of the Ministry of education which is named the important mineral resourcesdevelopment strategy selection of overseas risk assessment techniques （Item number:12YJA790208）. The Papers takes the risk assessment for strategic area selection of the overseascopper mineral resources development as the research object, on the basis of the detailedoverview of the research progress at home and abroad of the investment location selection andthe risk evaluation-related methodologies, comprehensive study on the risk assessment forstrategic area selection of the overseas copper mineral resources development with theapplication methods of the combining theoretical research and case studies and combiningqualitative and quantitative research. The main contents and conclusions of the paper are asfollows:First of all, on the basis of the related studies at home and abroad, the paper analyses thedistribution status, characteristics, production and consumption of the world copper mineralresources, at the same time, analyses the pattern and the present situation of the development andutilization of China’s overseas copper resources, and summarizes the main problems of thedevelopment and utilization of China’s overseas copper resources.Second, based on analyzing the present situation of supply and demand of the coppermineral resources in China, the paper analyzes the five factors that affect the demand of thecopper mineral resources, and establishes the mathematical model of the demand scenarios of thecopper mineral resources by using BP neural network, and sets the macro demand situation forthe copper mineral resources, estimates the Chinese copper demands scenarios from2015~2025.Third, based on the identification of risk factors for strategic area selection of the overseascopper mineral resources development, the paper constructs the risk evaluation index system ofthe strategic area selection of the overseas copper mineral resources development, the indexsystem includes eight first level indexes and twenty-three two level indexes, at the same time thepaper integrates the cloud model based on the matter element, and compiles the correspondingprogramming by using Matlab software,establishes the risk evaluation model of the strategic areaselection of the overseas copper mineral resources development on the base of the theory of thecloud and Matter-element.Fourth, selecting the12countries which copper mineral resources are relatively rich asapplication object, evaluates and analyzes the12countries in detailed by using the constructedmodel, proposes the strategic suggestions for the investment location selection of the overseascopper mineral resources development,namely taking the five countries which risk assessment rating are relatively low as the preferred countries of the development and utilization of China’soverseas copper resources, taking the four countries which risk assessment rating aregeneralization as the secondary countries, and taking the three countries which risk assessmentrating are relatively high and high as the countries which are selected with caution, and putsforward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The results show that: the model evaluation results are very consistent with the involvedcountries of the practice of the development of China’s overseas copper mineral resources,therefore, the framework and theory model constructed in the paper has some theoretical andpractical application values, and can provide the corresponding theoretical basis and decisionsupport methods for the development of China’s overseas copper mineral resources.