Research On The Carbon Emission Allocation In The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On Industrial Transfer

The coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei aims to build world-class urban agglomeration and to participate in international cooperation and competition on a higher level playing a supporting and leading role in the national economic and social development.The coordinated development of industry is the key support in the coordination of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the transfer and collaboration of industry will be a breakthrough for the in-depth cooperation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The guidance catalogue of industry transfer will be announced including information technology,equipment manufacturing,trade logistics,education training,health and pension,financial background,cultural creativity,sports and leisure and so on.The key of the new development of transferred industry lies in the powerful alliances with local industris,refining industry chain and optimize the allocation of regional resources,and finally realization of industrial optimization and upgrading.However,in the process of industrial relocation,it is inevitable to cause pollution transfer.On the basis of analyzing the industrial GDP and growth rate of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei 2004-2013,this dissertation analyzes the degree of industrial structure differences by industrial structure coefficient,and do further analysis of the size and changes of industrial gradient coefficient of 27 industrial departments of each place,determining the gradient advantage industry in various regions and regional industrial gradient difference.Then it builds industry cluster decision model employing the industrial location quotient and dynamic clustering index to analysis the industrial agglomeration and industrial transfer trend from two angles of stock and flow in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.And then it analyzes the agglomeration of industrial carbon emissions in Beijing Tianjin and Hebei in the context of industrial transfer,exploring regional carbon emissions transfer trend,and estimates 2004-2013 Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei industrial carbon emission efficiency of agglomeration through the input oriented variable returns to scale DEA model,with the industrial capital,number of employees,and energy consumption as input variables and the ratio of location quotient between each industry output and industrial carbon emission.Finally,this dissertation constructs the regional carbon emission distribution model with the industrial carbon emissions agglomeration efficiency as carbon emission reduction index considering industrial carbon emissions transfer factors and sets the average weight,duty preference,ability preference,potential preference and collaborative emission reduction preference five emission reduction scenarios,making analysis of the carbon emission reductions in Beijing Tianjin and Hebei region in 2020 under different abatement preferences,providing decision-making basis for the co-reduction in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei considering industrial transfer and carbon emissions transfer.