Research On Prediction Of Industrial Carbon Emissions And Emission-reduction Strategies In Shandong Province

In today’s world, economic globalization achieve rapid development which lead to energy consumption increasing of each countrie. As a result, problems of carbon emission has been increasingly serious.China is the second largest energy consumer country of the world, the demand for energy is growing. As industrial and economic province of China, in 2012 year, the total value of industrial production and the main business income both exceeded trillion mark, achieve rapid development. However, an indisputable fact is that as the regional economic aggregate continues to expand and population continues to grow, the contradiction between industrial economy development and resources and the environment has been increasingly prominent. The industrial resource consumption has increased rapidly, carbon emissions has become more and more serious, the deteriorating quality of the environment has been polluted, which bring huge losses to our country and people. The rapid industrial economy development bring a severe challenge to resources and the environment of the whole province. Leading by low carbon economy, reducing energy consumption, promoting the upgrading of industrial structure have a major significance.This paper explore the stasus of the industrial economy development and the energy consumption of Shandong Province systematically based on the correlation theory of a low-carbon economy, energy conservation and environmental Kuznets curve theory. Then use emission coefficient method to estimate industrial carbon emissions amount from 2000 to 2012 year of Shandong Province, derived industrial carbon emissions presenting an increasing trend, then put forward the current difficulties and obstacles to the development of low-carbon industry in Shandong Province. After that identify the main factors of industrial carbon emissions in Shandong Province by STIRPAT models, including industrial output, industrial energy intensity and industrial energy structure, conduct a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the root causes for its rising. On the basis of which, use scenario analysis to forecast industrial carbon emissions trend from 2013 to 2040 year of Shandong Province. Select baseline scenario, low carbon and ultra-low carbon scenario for setting, analyze future changes of industrial carbon emissions according to the changes of industrial output, energy intensity and energy structure. Draw a conclusion that annual industrial carbon emissions are different under three modes and the time and size of the peak is different, but the overall trend showed an inverted U-shaped curve characteristics, consistent with the view of the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory.Finally, according to the results of the three scenarios forecast analysis, put forward practical countermeasures and suggestions of low-carbon development in Shandong Province: adjust industrial structure of energy consumption, walking energy diversification path; optimize and upgrade industrial structure, develop low energy industry; improve industrial energy efficiency, reduce energy loss; strengthen government functions and strengthen industrial energy management; construct industrial ecology park, attatch importance to ecological environment protection.