Does Aging Affect House Prices?

Population aging is not the problem for just one country or region,but a worldwide issue.The 21 century can be referred as a century that the whole world is aging,and the issue of population aging will last for a long time.In recent years,as the engine machine of global world development,the Asian NIEs are going through the population aging process while rapidly developing economics.The population aging will bring rather serious changes to the economic and social development of Asian NIEs.As an essential needs of human being,house is closely bound up to everyone's life.But it is controlled by the market rules,so it's inevitable that it will be impacted by economic fluctuation.What kind of influence will population aging bring to the real estate market of Asian NIEs?Will it have an impact on the house price?Those are the concentration of this paper.Based on the research of literatures,this paper discovers a correlativity between population aging and house price,then it deduced the theory model of this paper based on three basic theories namely supply and demand theory,life cycle hypothesis,and overlapping generations model.At last,it build an empirical model based on the theory model,and made transnational empirical tests taking 5 Asian NIEs with serious population aging issue,namely Hong Kong,Taiwan,South Korea,Singapore,and Thailand.Considering the complexity and diversity of Chinese market,this paper took the panel data from 31 Provinces(Autonomous Region/Municipality)of China as samples,and made empirical tests on the situation of China individually.Through transnational experiences and empirical evidence of China,this paper discovered that:First,the rising of elder support rate will lead to a negative impact on the house price in the 5 Asian NIEs' markets,however the situation is the opposite in China that it wouldn't correspond with the theory model and the conclusion of Asian NIEs completely.Second,the declining of juvenile support rate brings positive impact on both 5 Asian NIEs and China,but the effect is relatively small,which totally corresponds with the theory model.Thirdly,the increasing of GDP per capita is one of the most important factor that pushes the house price.The tests in 5 Asian NIEs and in the 31 Provinces(Autonomous Region/Municipality)of China both verify the conclusion of the theory model.At last,based on the conclusion,and considering of the population tendency in the next 30 years,this article gives corresponding suggestions to the government,real estate developer and the house consumer.