Population Forecast And Analysis Of Jiangxi Province Based On Improved Leslie Model

In the economic and social process of our country,the population issue has always been a fundamental issue,and it is a global,long-term,and important issue before the Chinese nation.In recent years,China’ s population development situation has undergone significant changes,which will pose a huge test for China’ s economic and social development,and also affect the economic and social development of Jiangxi.In the context of a declining birth rate,the gradual acceleration of population aging,and the increasingly prominent social problems of " rich and old" being out of sync,research and prediction of the total population and structure of Jiangxi Province can help to grasp the trend of population change,solve population problems,and drive the economic and social development of Jiangxi Province.Therefore,predicting the future population structure of Jiangxi Province is very important and has far-reaching implications.This article summarizes and sorts out the research ideas of this article by reviewing domestic and foreign literature.Firstly,analyze the limitations of the traditional Leslie model in population prediction,and propose improvements to the model based on its limitations,namely,establish a bisexual Leslie population matrix,and consider the impact of fertility level,gender ratio of birth population,and population mobility.Secondly,the parameters involved in the improved Leslie population prediction model are defined.The ARIMA model and the intervention analysis model are used to predict the total fertility rate,and the age specific fertility rate parameters are defined in combination with the fertility model.The GM(1,1)model defines the gender ratio parameters of the birth population and the floating population parameters.after that,by selecting 1% of the population census data of Jiangxi Province in2015,and comparing and analyzing the prediction results of the improved Leslie population prediction model,only considering the prediction results of the Leslie population prediction model based on the gender ratio of the birth population and the prediction results based on the Logistic population growth retardation model,it is verified that the accuracy of the improved Leslie population prediction model has been improved.Finally,based on the improved Leslie population prediction model,the total population and population structure of Jiangxi Province are predicted and analyzed.After research and analysis,the following research results are obtained in this article: In the future,the total population of Jiangxi Province is showing a downward trend,the number of elderly people is showing an upward trend,and the population aging is further deepening,but the labor force population is showing an upward trend.This indicates that the advantage of the labor force in Jiangxi Province is still significant,which means that the demographic dividend has not yet disappeared.It is necessary to take advantage of this to accelerate the formation of the talent dividend and provide important talent support for economic transformation and upgrading.After in-depth analysis,we can propose suggestions:strengthen the efforts of talent introduction;Establish and improve a series of maternity incentive policies;Strengthen population mobility through the promotion of free flow of factors.