| Urbanization is a necessary stage for a country to change from an agricultural country to an industrial country.It is based on the development of social productive forces and relies on the advancement of science and technology to realize the comprehensive unification of the economy,population,region,and culture.Since the reform and opening up,with the development of the economy,the improvement of people’s living standards,and the continuous improvement of sanitary conditions,China’s population fertility has changed from "high birth,high death,low growth" to"low birth,low death,low growth." In the "2012 China’s New Urbanization Report",it is pointed out that for the first time,the rural population is smaller than the urban population.With the continuous improvement of economic conditions and social health and welfare conditions,the continuous extension of residents’ life,coupled with the implementation of the family planning policy,China’s aging problem has gradually become prominent.Population ageing refers to the relative increase in the proportion of older people in the total population due to a decrease in the number of young people and an increase in the number of older people due to a decrease in the fertility rate and an increase in life expectancy.Farmers rely mainly on agricultural production,and the population ageing has fundamentally weakened the development of the agricultural economy,which in turn has restricted the improvement of the quality of life of farmers.This article is based on the 2010 national census data and the 2014 Chinese elderly society and tracing data(CLASS),based on the Leslie population growth model,with the age structure of the population as the main influencing factor,to predict the rural population structure of our country,and Analysis of the changing trend of the elderly population;according to the CLASS data,the use of Multinomial Logistic model to explore the factors influencing the choice of old-age mode of rural elderly in our country,and analysis and interpretation.The full text is divided into four parts to elaborate.The first part is an introduction.This part mainly introduces the background and significance of the writing of this article,and summarizes the domestic and international research on the impact of aging on rural pensions,population models and pension methods,briefly summarizes China’s population policy,and finally introduces the possible innovations and deficiencies of this article..The second part is the introduction of methods and data.This part gives a detailed theoretical introduction to the Leslie growth model and multiple logistic regression model,and uses the sixth census as the basic data,referring to the statistical yearbook in recent years,to analyze and predict the growth of rural population in different age structures in China;Using the data of the 2014 Chinese Society for Elderly and Follow-up Survey as the analysis data,to explore the influencing factors of the rural elderly people’s choice of pension method in China.The third part is empirical research and analysis.This part is based on the population structure of the sixth population census in China,and is divided into two populations:urban and rural.It focuses on the changes in the rural population structure.The software Matlab2016 is used to bring the urban and rural data into the Leslie population growth model.The trend of the number of people in the age group is analyzed,and the focus is on the analysis of the change in the total population of the elderly aged 65 and above in rural areas.Using software SPSS24 to import CLASS data,after filtering out 1,682 valid data,from 1,194 rural data records,1,682 valid data for people over 60 years of age were screened out to analyze the choice behavior of rural elderly pension methods and establish a multiple logistic regression model.The fourth part is the analysis of research results and policy recommendations.The results show that with the deepening of the urbanization process,the rural population is getting smaller and smaller,but the proportion of the rural elderly population in the total rural population is increasing year by year.From 2035 to 2055,the proportion of rural elderly people continues to exceed 50%.The proportion reaches the highest value around 2040,which can be as high as 57%;rural pension methods can be divided into three types:home pension,social pension and government pension.Compared with home pension,it has a lower education level,no children,and a low annual family income.At 10,000 yuan,medical and health public services are relatively good and the age is 60-64 years old,the rural elderly are more inclined to government pension;when they have not received education,are in good health,the annual family income is less than 20,000 yuan,and medical and public health services Under good conditions,rural elderly tend to choose social pensions.Finally,based on the research results and the existing relevant policies in China,we put forward feasible countermeasures and suggestions for the elderly.The possible innovations and contributions of this article are as follows:data timeliness and comprehensiveness.This article uses the latest data from the 2014 Chinese Society for Geriatrics and Tracking Survey,which has good timeliness.The data from the sixth census is richer and more comprehensive than the annual statistical yearbook data,and the data grouping is detailed and reliable. |
