The Relationship Between Main Variety Of Air Pollutants And Patient For Respiratory Diseases In Hangzhou

This paper evaluated the quantity of the effect of major air pollutants on respiratory diseases in Hangzhou and predicted the daily outpatient visits of short term respiratory diseases,by assessing the data of daily changes of atmospheric pollutants and number of cases of respiratory diseases.Collecting the daily concentration of the PM_2.5?PM₁₀?NO₂?SO₂ in Hangzhou and the daily temperature from the October 28,2013 to the August 31,2016 in the paper.And the daily respiratory diseases in Hangzhou were also collected.A semi-parametric generalized additive model?GAM?was used to analyze the relationship between the main variety of air pollutants and the number of daily respiratory diseases there,after controlling for the long time trend,the number of base temperature and other confounding factors.The BP?Back Propagation?neural networks model was used to predict the number of hospital outpatients with respiratory diseases.The hysteretic effect of the air pollution were studied by selecting the independent variable of the model.Getting the following results:?1?The daily concentration of the PM_2.5?PM₁₀?NO₂ and SO₂ were 62.25?g/m3?94.94?g/m3?46.59?g/m3?18.97?g/m3 from the October 28,2013 to the August 31,2016 in Hangzhou.And the concentration of SO₂ meet the national air quality standards,but the concentration of PM_2.5?PM₁₀?NO₂ were more than the national air quality standards.?2?Regarding PM_2.5,PM₁₀,NO₂ and SO₂,with an inter-quartile range,the RR were 1.030?95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.016-1.045?,1.063?95% CI: 1.043-1.084?,1.053?95% CI: 1.016-1.091?and 1.025?95% CI:.1.003-1.048?.?3?There was hysteretic effect between the air pollution and the daily respiratory disease hospitalization.The lag days of the PM_2.5?PM₁₀?NO₂?SO₂ on respiratory disease were 3 days?2 days?4 days?3 days.?4?When there were a increase of 0.039?g/m3,0.063?g/m3,0.023?g/m3,0.014?g/m3,the increasing the number of hospital outpatients with respiratory diseases were 3%?95% CI: 1.016-1.045?,6.3%?95% CI: 1.043-1.084?,5.3%?95% CI: 1.016-1.091?and 2.5%?95% CI: 1.003-1.048?.?5?The BP?Back Propagation?neural networks model ?Nonlinear fitting prediction model,generalized additive prediction model were used to predict the number of hospital outpatients with respiratory diseases from the August 1,2016 to the August 31,2016.The average relative error of the predicted values were 38.81%,14.91% and 13.821%,respectively,and the mean square error were 11.89,5.066 and 4.721,respectively.Thus,the BP neural networks model can be used to predict the number of short term of respiratory diseases outpatient visits.So the air quality of Hangzhou remains to be improved,and the various pollutants had the various effects on health.There was a trend of increase of the daily respiratory disease hospitalization with the increasing concentration of the pollutants.Thus we suggest the government departments taking the following four actions to improve the atmospheric environment: increasing environmental capital investment;setting environmental protection regulations;strengthening environmental supervision;enhancing the propaganda dynamics.