Study On The Requirement Forecast Of Human Resources For Health Of Hubei Province Based On The Model Of Combination Forecasting

[Purpose] Based on the analysis of the persent situation and variation trend of human resources for health of Hubei province, methods of manpower/population ratio, linear regression, Box-Jenkins model, grey model and the weighted average combinational forecasting model are used one after another to predict the demand for health workers of Hubei province in 2016—2020, and then the optimal forecasting model is selected out. According to the optimal forecasting model, the absolute demand of human resources for health of urban and rural areas of Hubei province are predicted. Meanwhile, using methods of HRDI and optimal forecasting model to predict the relative demand of human resources for health in Hubei province. On this basis, the forecasting results of absolute demand and relative demand are contrasted to analyze the developing trend of human resources for health in Hubei province. Exploring scientific and reasonable forecasting methods and putting forward effective allocation strategies, so as to provide theoretical references and decision-making basis for the planning of human resources for health and reform of medical education.[Methods](1) Literature review. Turning to the electronic database, including Pubmed, China science and technology periodical(VIP), WanFang, etc, to summarize literatures at home and abroad relating to researches of human resources for health. Collecting statistical yearbooks, health statistics annuals and other data issued by the authorities in order to learn about the overall developing situation of human resources for health in Hubei province.(2) Empirical study. The structure of health workforce in hubei province was surveyed by questionnaires in the form of confirmation letter.(3) Descriptive statistical analysis. With the help of SPSS20.0 and Microsoft Office Excel 2007, the allocation and development status of health workers in urban and rural areas of Hubei province in recent years were analyzed by description methods. Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient were adopted to evaluate the distribution equality of health workers according to demography and geography in Hubei Province.(4) The absolute demand forecasting model of health workers. Using softwares of SPSS20.0 and Microsoft Office Excel 2007, combining methods of manpower/population ratio, linear regression, Box-Jenkins model, grey model and the weighted average combinational forecasting model to predict the absolute demand for health workers of Hubei province in 2016—2020.(5) The relative demand forecasting model of health workers. Using softwares of SPSS20.0 and Microsoft Office Excel 2007 on the basis of HRDI to predict the relative demand for health workers of Hubei province in 2016—2020.[Results](1) The order of prediction precision among five models from high to low was: the weighted average combinational forecasting model, Box-Jenkins model, grey model, manpower/population ratio model. The average relative error and standard deviation of combinational forecasting model was the least one and it was the optimal forecasting model as a result.(2) From 2004 to 2014, the number of health workers in Hubei province had increased year by year. Through the number of health workers was relatively sufficient, there were still four main problems. First, the quantity of doctors and nurses was not enough and the proportion of them was not reasonable. Second, the structure and quality of the health workforce remained to be further optimized. Third, the distribution equality of health workers according geography was poor. Fourth, the distribution of health workers in urban and rural areas was also unbalanced. The human resources for health in urban areas was more abundant than rural areas and the gap between them had statistical significance.(3) The absolute demand predicting results of human resources for health in Hubei province showed that the number of health workers is increased from 2016 to 2020. From 2014 to 2020, the number of health technicians,(assistant) medical practitioners, registered nurses and rural doctors will increase 181500, 100000,157800,3100. The difference of the quantity of health workers between urban and rural areas become bigger and the unbalanced distribution of health workers in urban and rural areas become more prominent.(4) The relative demand predicting results of human resources for health in Hubei province showed that the relative demand predicting results were lower than the actual quantity of health workers in Hubei province and the absolute demand predicting results. Although at this stage, the number of health workers was relatively sufficient, in the next few years, the growth rate of the quantity of health workers in Hubei province will be slower than our country and the difference of the quantity of health workers between Hubei province and whole country will become smaller.(5) The supply of health workers in Hubei province was more than demand and the supply and demand of health workers in Hubei province was unbalance.[Conclusions](1) Exploring scientific methods for the requirement forecast of human resources for health to provide guidance for the planning of human resources for health.(2) Strengthening the macroeconomic regulation of the government to achieve the rational allocation of human resources for health between urban and rural areas.(3) Adjust the structure of the health workforce and improve their overall quality.(4) Direct the talent cultivation universities on the basis of the demand predicting results of human resources for health.