A Dynamics Research Of Civil Aviation Safety And Sustained Development Of Tianjin

Under the condition of flights' number rising sharply,operation status of Tianjin airport and air traffic management are in full load for a long time.The support capability can not meet demand of actual development,so that operating pressure of flights' safety and normality increased day by day.It is important for achieving safety and sustained development of Tianjin to study the dynamic rules among support capability,safety and development in depth,and to adjust policies in time.Based on the system model of growth and under-investment,and model of safety and production,the influence factors and mechanism about safety and sustained development of Tianjin are comprehensively analyzed,and conceptual model is established.Then the causal relationship of subsystem elements among the airline which main operating base is Tianjin,Binhai international airport and air traffic department are analyzed.The number of pilots,capacity of airport facilities and other variables are identified as policy adjustment variables.And the number of flights,accident rate and other variables are identified as observed variables.Initial value and equations of model are confirmed by data collection,expert interviews and other ways.Then the dynamic model of civil aviation safety and sustained development of Tianjin is established.The rationality and validity of the model are verified by dimensional conformance,structural and behavior reproducing test.During the current investment intensity of resources,result predicted by using Vensim-DSS software,shows that accident rate in 2016-2025 is continuously fluctuating,safety goal can not be achieved,level of normality continues to decline,and the number of flights reaches saturation at 2019.Therefore,three policy scenarios are designed respectively,such as meeting the demand of civil aviation market of Tianjin,achieving the goal of flight safety and normality,and achieving the safety and sustained development.According to the result of simulation,the policy suggestions are proposed.The flight number of civil aviation of Tianjin should be reduced firstly during 2016-2019.At the same time,the capacity of Tianjin airport and airspace should be expanded,investment of personnel,equipment and safety should be increased.Then during 2020-2025,the intensity of investment should be maintained,and the number of flights should be increased.