Civil Aviation Safety Analysis And Management Research

As one of the key industries in the national economic and social development, civil aviation is a high-tech, high-investment, and high-risk industry. Safety is an eternal theme for civil aviation. The ability and level of safety management essentially affects and restraints the development of civil aviation. The research on the civil aviation safety management techniques and methods which are consistent with the characteristics of China and the sustainable safety framework of civil aviation has important significance for increasing the civil aviation safety level and realizing the sustainable civil aviation safety. Aiming at the key and difficult problems of the civil aviation safety analysis and management, the main research contents and innovations of the dissertation are as follows:Firstly, the civil aviation management and the sustainable safety techniques and methods for civil aviation have been studied. The civil aviation system is a huge and complex system. Many factors which have complex logic relationship among themselves affect the safety of civil aviation system. To manage the safety of the civil aviation system is very difficult task. If the theories and methods of system engineering are applied into the civil aviation safety system, and the safety management system which consists of risk identification, safety analysis, safety assessment, safety prediction and safety control could be realized, then the latent dangers in the civil aviation safety system can be found, the benefit and efficiency of the civil aviation safety management system can be improved. In order to realize long term safe operation of civil aviation, a sustainable safety management framework is established, some integrated sustainable safety management techniques and methods of system safety management, process safety management, details safety management, information safety management and aviation safety culture management are studied. Secondly, the errors analysis in engineering maintenance of civil aviation is studied. Engineering maintenance is an important factor for civil aviation safety. The causes and characteristics of errors in the engineering maintenance are analyzed and their impact on civil aviation safety is quantitatively assessed. The approaches to reduce maintenance errors and the appropriate measures to prevent maintenance errors from happening are studied in order to improve safety. Appropriate measures that are adopted before errors happen have significance for increasing the safety level of civil aviation. Considering the fuzzy and uncertain characteristics of errors, the second generation of human reliability analytical method– CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method) is applied with fuzzy logic method. Errors in engineering maintenance of civil aviation are quantitatively studied for the first time. It provides the solutions for taking proper measures to reduce maintenance errors. On the basis of the quantitative analysis of errors in maintenance of civil aviation, the quantitative effect of errors in engineering maintenance of civil aviation on the safety of maintenance system is studied.Thirdly, the aviation engineering maintenance safety performance evaluation system is established and the maintenance safety assessment is studied. Aiming at the characteristics of engineering maintenance system of civil aviation, the factors which influence the civil aviation safety are analyzed and the safety performance evaluation system of engineering maintenance system is built. With the fuzzy and uncertain data, the safety assessment of civil aviation maintenance system is studied. Comprehensively considering all factors which have effects on safety of civil aviation, such as maintenance engineering, maintenance management, and maintenance techniques, a multi-level, multi-dimensional safety assessment performance evaluation system for civil aviation engineering maintenance is established for the first time to provide support for impersonally assessing safety level of civil aviation. On the basis of analyzing the present safety assessment methods, data fusion methods and multiple attributes decision methods based on uncertain information are adopted to build the maintenance safety assessment model of civil aviation. Combining comprehensive weighting method and variable weighting method, the influence of weighting on assessment results is alleviated. The safety assessment method is scientific and feasible. The comparison analysis results show that the proposed method is more accurate and more reliable than the traditional safety assessment methods.Fourthly, safety analysis and safety monitoring of civil aviation engineering maintenance are studied. Safety analysis is one important means to find problems and avoid potential accidents. The research results in the field of artificial intelligence, such as Bayes network, are applied to safety analysis of civil aviation. Safety analysis of the complex civil aviation engineering maintenance system is realized. Based on comparisons among the current safety analysis methods of complex system, Bayes network-based safety analysis model of civil aviation engineering maintenance is built. With the help of the model, the present safety status can be analyzed dynamically and the dangerous source can be judged conversely. The model provides support for finding potential safety hazard in time and taking effective preventive measures. Considering the present situation of civil aviation engineering maintenance system, dynamic Bayes network-based safety monitoring model of civil aviation engineering maintenance system is developed. The monitored objects can be designed and adjusted dynamically. Safety and efficiency of the civil aviation engineering maintenance system are improved effectively.The proposed methods in the dissertation have been put into practice in a domestic airline company and have obtained some good effects, which show the effectiveness of the methods.