Research On The Collision Risk Of Vessels In Chengshanjiao Promontory Water Area Based On Support Vector Machine

The TSS(traffic saperation scheme)of Chengshanjiao promontory waters is the only one which record by IMO(International Maritime Organization)in China.This waters also became a high accident area because of the crossing traffic flows and massive fishing vessels during the fishing season.In order to reduce the probability of ship collision risk and prevent ship from the pollution accidents,MSA(Maritime Safety Administration)of China and MSA of Shandong have organized some investigation,research and evaluation about this waters.In June 2014,The govement of China had proposed a draft about amend of the TSS of Chen shan jiao waters and ship report scheme to the Sub-Committee on navigation,communications and search and rescue of IMO.And this amend was officially implemented in June 1st 2015.This paper involves tracing and collecting the information of ship traffic flow before and after the amend in Chenshanjiao promontory waters,and catalogues the collection data by straight and crossing channel,longitudinal contrast and quantificate the accident data by current standard accident grade,established the evaluation index system of the accident consequence,and set up predict model of waters by SVM(support vector mechine),IWRAP and Brown movement.And testify the data sample of the amend in 1 year,comparative analysis,in order to get variable quantity of ship collision risk in Chenshanjiao TSS after amend and variable parameter that influent the risk.Based on this,comprehensively analysis the quantitative results of collision probability and collision consequences,get variable quantity of TSS before and after amend in Chenshanjiao promontory waters in defferent channel part,and give a quantitative evaluation about TSS collision risk after amend.In this paper,the collision consequence estimate based on SVM and single ship collision risk estimate based on Brown movement have some value for reference in evaluate ship collision risk area.