Research On Calculation Method Of Ship Collision Probability Based On The Theory Of IWRAP

Ship collision has been the important research objects of experts and scholars both at home and abroad,as the main types of water traffic accident,once collision accident occurred,life and property will undoubtedly be seriously threatened.Collision related research at home and abroad has developed from many aspects,but in view of calculation and analysis of collision probability in the river must be furtherresearched.Inland navigation environment compared to the sea there is a large difference between the relatively narrow waterway,water complex,especially in some bent route,the poor navigation environment easily lead ship collision accident.Therefore,in the study of the collision probability of inland river,combination with the practical situation of inland river developing suitable calculation model for inland river ships collision probability is of great significance.Paper based on the combination of dynamic and static collision probability model researched collision probability,using IWRAP theory combined with the monte carlo simulation calculated geometry probability of collision,the fault tree analysis method was used to calculate collision probability of cause factor,and then used to calculate the inland river ships collision probability model was constructed.Selected the Huangzhou new beach waters in WuhuSectionofYangtze River,Calculated the collision probability of the segment,Verified the validity of the model,analyzed the biggest impact factors of collision in the segment,putted forward corresponding corrective measures.Details as follows:First,for the difference between inland navigation environment and the sea,puttingforward the collision probability model of the IWRAPtheory combined with fault tree theory.Usingthe cause factor of the probability which was calculated by the fault tree theory instead of the cause factor of the probability in IWRAP,to obtain suitable collision probability calculation model for inland.Secondly,application of MATLAB software processing traffic data to analyse the vessel traffic flow feature of the waters,including ship types,route scale,ship trafficflow and ship distributionand so on.The ship normally distributed in the channel section,more than 95% of the vessels are for general cargo ship.For the study of accuracy,the ship classified according to the ship's length,getted the distribution of each type of ship in the waterway section probability function.Then,accordingthe theory of IWRAP respectively to set up to head-on,overtaking and crossing geometric collision probability of monte carlo simulation model,based on vessel traffic flow data,calculated respectively to the potential number of head-on,overtaking and crossing,and obtained the number of potential collision accidents in the water.Finally,on the basis of the analysis of collision build tree of ship collision accident,using gaussian distribution rule of 3 sigma calculation of each basic event fuzzy probability range,with minimal cut set method to calculate the probability of collision accident cause factor.ultimately calculated the area of collision probability,validated the model can be used to calculate the inland river ships collision probability.Meanwhile,Sensitivity analysis found that the biggest impact on water collision is sailing neglect alert and did not follow the laws and regulations,Thus targeted improvement measures were put forward.