Research On Trip Characteristics Of Urban Residents During Winter In Cold Region

With rapid urbanization and motorization,the urban traffic problem has become an important factor which restrict the development of the city.Public transport has become the main measure to solve the problem primarily because of its advantages such as large capacity and low cost.Cold region accounts for over 50% land area of China,the climate which characterized by low temperature,heavy snow and fresh gale.It is easy to form icy roads,which not only seriously affects the transport efficiency,but also increases traffic accidents.More and more Chinese households in the cold region choose private cars as transportation due to the terrible weather conditions in winter which results more traffic congestions and traffic accidents.Therefore,it has practical significance to analyze the travel behavior and mode choice characteristics of the urban residents in cold region during winter.In this thesis,first of all,the definition of cold region and the travel characteristics in winter were summarized.Secondly,the model establishment and research methods are presented.After analytical model is selected,the method and the scheme are designed to collect experimental data by combining the RP and SP survey.Thirdly,the MNL and NL models are used and compared to investigate the influence of travel mode choice factors for urban residents during winter in the cold region.In this article,the Biogeme software was used to complete the model coefficient estimation and statistical analysis work,and was used to analyze the influencing factors of the travel mode choice that are significant.In addition,this thesis focused on the influence of enclosed heating bus station demand and the commuter’s attitude toward the real-time public transport information.The study also presents a classified model of commuter travel,business travel and leisure travel conditions,to analyze the similarities and differences of significant factors and their significance.The results show that a total of 16 factors have significant effects on commuter’s travel choice during winter in the cold region,which include the actual driving experience,travel purpose,travel distance,closed heating bus station,real-time bus information,travel time and travel cost,walking distance,parking fees,transit for bus,etc.Based on the results of the regression model,this paper puts forward six aspects of improvement recommendations.The results of the study offered decision-making assistance for government agencies to improve cold winter transportation infrastructure and to increase the share rate of public transport during winter in the cold region.