The Model Of Commute Mode Shift From Private Car To Public Transport

ABSTRACT:Nowadays the traffic jam especially on rush hours becomes more and more serious in some cities of China. Making people change their traffic mode and suggesting them to use more public transport for their trip is extremely an effective way to solve the problem. In the paper, model mode shift of car commuters to public transport has been studied, which is meaningful for government's decision-making.Some work has been done in the paper which is listed in the following:Firstly,The problem of mode choice has been regarded as a system, the composing factors,aim,characters of the system have been put forward. The process of commuters decision making in mode choice has been studied under which the effect of system environment to the choice has been analyzed. Some primary resistance and impetus to the mode change from private car to public transport has been studied, under which the mechanism of model shift has been brought forward.Secondly,A new conception named value tropism of mode choice has been put forward, which is a principle intrinsic factor to people's mode choice. After explaining the position, function, effected factors of the new conception, A survey project of the value tropism has been put forward. In the next, commuter chain has been studied, after that a model has been built for the purpose of finding the effect of value tropism and commuter chain to the mode choice using structural equation.Thirdly, The conception of shift force to car commuters has been described based on mechanics theory. Model the service characters of private car and public transport using mechanics theory has been studied. Kinetic energy theorem has been used to built the desire model of car commuters.Fourthly, car commuters have been classified to six category according to their income and age, The difference of desire degree for their mode-change has been analyzed based on the RP and SP survey data in Beijing Jingtong and Huilongguan district. By parameter estimation from survey data, It shows that different kinds of commuters have different preference for traffic conditions and habitual dependenceFinally,Evolutionary game theory has been used to analysis the action of car commuters under public transport first policy. Models of considering the policy cost and mutral-action of the commuters have been built separately. The evolutionary path has been analyzed. The innovation of the thesis can ben showed as follow:(1) The issue of mode choice has been regarded as a system, the effect of inner factors and environment of the system to the choice has been analyzed. Some primary resistance and impetus to the mode change from private car to public transport has been studied, under which the mechanism of model shift has been brought forward.(2) A new conception named value tropism of mode choice has been put forward. A survey project of the value tropism has been put forward. commuter chain has been studied, after that a model has been built for the purpose of finding the effect of value tropism and commuter chain to the mode choice using structural equation.(3) Mechanics theory has been brought in the thesis, The conception of shift force to car commuters has been described based on mechanics theory. Model the service characters of private car and public transport using mechanics theory has been studied. Kinetic energy theorem has been used to built the desire model of car commuters.(4) Evolutionary game theory has been used to analysis the action of car commuters under public transport first policy.The policy cost and mutral-action of the commuters have been considered separately. The evolutionary path has been analyzed.