Research On Selection Of Risk Analysis Method Of Reusable Space Engineering When Planning Phase

With the successful recovery of the United States successfully test X-37 B and X-space rocket Falcon,the world's space powers rise reusable spacecraft boom,reusable spacecraft has become an important area of competition in the world aerospace powers.As a major space powers,our country is bound to carry out a similar reusable spacecraft development work.But reusable s pacecraft is an experience within the atmosphere and atmospheric flight environment,ability to adapt to the harsh reentry after heat conditions special aircraft,its complexity,constraints and more demanding,harsh reentry flight environment,the risk ma ny factors,risk management and control difficult.Furthermore,the lack of a reusable spacecraft developed the necessary technical aspects of preparation,lack of relevant personnel data.So how to adopt a practical approach to risk analysis,more comprehensive,more quickly identify possible risks of such aerospace projects,to guide our reusable spacecraft technology programs and research program development is an important decision problem for our reusable spacecraft developed has important value and si gnificance.This paper reviews the development of aerospace engineering in the field of risk analysis methods and select the most widely used risk matrix method,failure modes and effects analysis and probabilistic risk analysis,from the principles,processes and procedures of their analysis and use of specific aerospace case illustrates these three methods.On this basis,a detailed analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these three methods.Next,the article describes the reusable spacecraft tec hnical characteristics,determine the reusable spacecraft program stage risk anal ysis requirements.Among them,according to the risk of such spacecraft to construct a framework for reusable spacecraft risk analysis,design risk analysis process.From the breadth,depth and efficiency of risk needs three aspects of reusable spacecraft program stage risk analysis requirements.Finally,we built a multi-level evaluation index system of risk analysis and evaluation of the decision to build the risk analysis me thod based on Multiple Attribute Decision Making Method and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making.And design expert questionnaire,based on actual data for expert scoring models were calculated.This article also uses risk analysis method chosen,choose reusable spacecraft,a flight phase case,the analysis of the risk event phases of flight.