Research And Application Of The Classified Evaluation Model For Scenario Competitiveness Of Distributed Energy Supply Systems

With the rapid development of global economy and the shortage of fossil energy,it has become an urgent problem to improve the energy efficiency and protecting the environme nt.The growing trend of the usage of energy is changing from the centralized mode to the distributed one.Since the energy conservation and emission reduction policy was promoted,the distributed energy supply systems have been widely concerned with their advantages of high efficiency,environmental protection,security and so on.Aimed at dealing with the problems of complicated affected factors,various types of scenarios,lack of quantitat i ve methods of evaluating the construction planning and economic activities,a classified evaluat io n model for scenario competitiveness of distributed energy supply systems was built up to make comprehensive evaluation of the scenario competitiveness of the distributed energy supply systems.The model provides decision-making references for the planning and development of distributed energy supply systems.To research the development value of distributed energy supply systems in all aspects is to evaluate their scenario competitiveness in the final analysis.Therefore,the concept of scenario competitiveness of the distributed energy supply systems,which is divided into two parts: hard and soft competitiveness,was firstly defined in this paper.Bilayer structure system of the scenario competitiveness was designed.And then,influence factors of the distributed energy supply systems were summarized comprehensively from different perspectives of hard and soft competitiveness.Meanwhile,analysis indexes directly related to the above influe nce factors were involved in the formation of a comprehensive analysis index system of the distributed energy supply systems,from which practical analysis indexes were chosen.These practical analysis indexes provide the basic data for the classified evaluation of distributed energy supply systems.Then,a classification research system of the distributed energy supply systems was presented in the paper.The types of distributed energy supply systems are various and the number is getting larger and larger.If the scenario is evaluated respectively,it will increase the workload by a big margin and reduce the universality of the analysis results.To deal with this problem,the classification system was designed according to the similarity of the distributed energy supply systems under the same influence factors.On the one hand,a comprehens ive conventional classification system according to the development scale and application field of the scenario was constructed.The development characteristics of typical types were summarized combined with the actual scenarios.On the other hand,fuzzy clustering mechanism was introduced into the classification analysis of the distributed energy supply systems.Indexes for clustering analysis were chosen from the practical analysis indexes.The fuzzy clustering analysis method of the distributed energy supply systems is applied to domestic existing scenarios and its role of inspection and supplement to the conventional classifica t io n system was verified.Finally,to solve the problem that there is no quantitative methods of evaluating the construction planning and economic activities,a classified evaluation model based on analyt ic hierarchy process and entropy weight method for scenario competitiveness of distributed energy supply systems was built up.This model takes the practical analysis indexes as the input variables and the classified evaluation values of the scenario competitiveness as the output variables.On the basis of the introduction of index contribution coefficient of differ e nt scenarios by the entropy weight method,evaluation values of the scenario competitiveness were finally solved by the analytic hierarchy process.The effectiveness and applicability of the model,which provides decision-making references for the investors and the relevant personnel,were verified by the results of the example.