The Evaluation Of Great Blackout Social Integrated Loss Of Power Network Planning

The rapid economic development of our country at present stage has driven the continuous growth of electricity demand of the social industries,which brings a lot of pressure to power grid planning, system safe operation and so on In order to meet the growing demand of the load and achieve the optimal allocation of energy resources, the state has implemented a long distance and large capacity power transmission through the construction of strong smart grid, and achieved remarkable achievements. But with the continuous expansion of the system scale and the extent of the increasingly complex, a local or even a part of the power grid failure, it is possible to trigger a chain reaction, and expand to a larger range. Blackout accidents not only bring huge economic losses,enterprises are facing a large number of production, equipment damage, and even the major casualties, but also lead to a series of serious social impact,such as municipal traffic chaos, communication interrupt and all kinds of services abnormal.According to the social integrated loss evaluation index system of power grid blackout has not established in our country, this paper starts from the basic theory of accident economic loss to find out the suitable classification method of great blackout social integrated loss,then expounds the principle of the construction of social integrated loss index to select the most serious level of the influence of blackout on social production and life to establish the social integrated loss evaluation index system and corresponding quantitative model of power grid blackout,such as casualties, power sector and power consumer economic losses as well as the indirect economic losses of power outages and other aspects. The casualty expectance model of high-risk industries and economic loss calculation model are established to obtain the economic loss of casualties.The economic loss of power suppliers is calculated as loss of electric charge. Through integrated analysis of production process and loss characters of power consumers, the specific loss model of three load classes as well as urban and rural residential load are established respectively. The delaying loss of means of production and personnel is taken as the major part of indirect economic loss. Finally, a typical area is selected and the integrated economic loss under time instants is calculated by investigating the relevant data required for the above model,and achieves the evaluation of great blackout social integrated loss according to the relevant national standards. The contrast analysis with the calculation results of the international large-scale blackout accident is done to verify the scientific and rationality of the evaluation model, thus providing technical support for grid planning and operation decisions.