Study On Forecast And Decomposition Of Grid Energy Loss Index

Power loss rate of grid is an important index in generally technical and economic aspect for electric enterprise, it reflects the level of programming and designing, manufacturing technique and operating management of gird. To forecast exactly power loss rate can provide a theoretical basis for enacting loss index, and to decompose reasonably power loss rate can instruct electric enterprise's manufacture and promote them to reduce loss. Due to be more factors influencing on power loss and be more complex, and there is no reasonable and accurate power loss rate forecast and decomposition method, so launching the study on forecast and decomposition of power loss index is of great theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, the study on forecast and decomposition of power loss index focuses in the following areas.First, this paper sums up the present studying status of the power loss index, and draws up some problems needed to be further study; and expounds the definition, classification and composition of power loss rate; analyzes the factors influencing on the power loss rate, the technical loss rate is processed by quantitative analysis and then relevant formulas are inferred, the managerial loss rate is processed by qualitative analysis and relevant reduction measures are offered.Second, this paper analyzes the transferring and flowing relation on the power loss index forecast and the factors needed to be considered, on this basis, presents the forecasting model of the power loss rate. The technical model is formed by including the no-load loss forecast on the basis previous research; the two different levels of managerial models are presented by introducing the grey model. The model of the power loss rate is gained by integrating the technical model and the managerial model. The model makes index forecast more scientific and rational by decomposing and numbering factors influencing on power loss rate.Third, this paper analyzes the transferring flow process on the decomposition of power loss rate and the factors needed to be considered, considering the current decomposition methods and their lacks, and then presents the decomposition method of loss index on the basis of twice modification on forecast power loss index, and solves it by using genetic algorithm. The simulation results show that the index decomposition method is reasonable and fair.Finally, this paper describes the importance of the evaluation of power loss index forecast...