| With the public lifestyle and consumer attitudes in quietly changing,people involved in the traffic demand increase significantly.Car rental as an important branch of the integrated transport system is an important supplement to the subway,bus,car and other modes of transportation,because it is flexible and convenient,freedom of choice and the travel cost is low,gradually popular of all ages,to become a new choice of resident trip mode.At present,China’s car rental industry is in a high-speed development trend,but the theoretical research and development of automobile leasing does not match,that can not pass the reasonable theoretical to guide its development,only by the experience of the allocation of resources,resulting in low utilization of resources,which is an important reason to hinder the development of car rental industry.This paper first studied the relevant literatures at home and abroad,summarized the present situation and the research deficiency in the field of car rental,determined the contents and objectives of this paper.Then analyzed the current situation of residents’ car rental,explained the behavior of residents’ car rental trip choice,summarized residents’ car rental trip choice and characteristics,and analyzed the factors affecting the choice of residential car rental factors.Moreover,selected,defined and analyzed dynamic factors,discussed the derivation of MNL model,introduced Logistic model,proposed model solving method and model statistical test index.Finally,the people’s car rental car selection questionnaire was designed,the basic situation of residents statistics and analysis,and the car rental groups were divided based on whether or not rental car experience.Based on the above research,SPSS and STATA software were used to screen the influencing factors,the first and the first time car rental trip choice model were constructed and parameter calibration were carried out to analyze the influence of different attributes on the probability of residential car rental trip choice and test the reliability and applicability.Finally,the model was compared and analyzed,according to the model forecast results,predicted and tested the overall situation of residents’ car rental trip choice,and to mention the car rental industry development proposals and countermeasures.The study shows that the model of car rental travel model with dynamic factors constructed in this paper satisfies the testing standard,which verifies the validity and practicability of the model;dynamic factors are the important factors affecting the choice of car rental;the forecast results have a strong explanatory power for the choice of residents’ car rental,and provide a supporting role in analyzing the residents’ demand for car rental and mastering the law of residents’ car rental.The conclusion of the study has laid the foundation for the further research,which is of great significance to guide the development and policy development of the car rental industry and promote the development of the car rental industry,optimize the traffic structure,promote environmental protection and energy saving and emission reduction. |
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