The Reasons For Failures Of Maritime Typhoon Avoidance Based On Accident Tree Analysis

Tropical cyclones are severe weather systems for the navigation of ships,which originated in the tropical waters,have a great impact on safety navigating.Tropical cyclones are usually structure of spirals,when the place under the influence it will bring heavy winds and rain.Tropical cyclones that influence scope is wide often invade subtropical region,and make a great threat to the area of sailing ships.In order to reduce the probability of accident during sailing near tropical cyclones,this paper studied some typical cases of ships failure in avoiding typhoon using the method of fault tree.On the basis of the information about tropical cyclones in the typhoon yearbook and weather analysis and forecasting charts,we can get the forecast and actual location,time,speed,and maximum wind of the certain tropical cyclones.Combining the decision of the crews in different time and weather conditions,as well as the shipping routes and typhoon tracks,the accident factors have been analyzed.Based on fault tree model,the main factors can be summarized as human factors,ship and environment factors.Human factor is the main cause of failure avoiding typhoon.It mainly includes the crew’s own quality,the meteorological knowledge of the crew,sailing experience,work environment and the management level,etc.Ship factor is also an important factor in the failure of the ship to avoid typhoon,including aging of ship age,poor ability to collect meteorological data and insufficient strength of hull.Environmental factor includes the reverse movement of typhoons,sudden increasing in wind power.Through the analysis of the reasons for failure,the advices are put forward to solve the problem from the following several aspects.Firstly,the study solves human factors from the crew skill aspects,the responsibility of the crew and so on.Secondly,the study solves ship factors from strengthening the inspection of hull structure,old ship management,ship’s equipment inspection and so on.Thirdly the study solves environmental factors from improving the navigation service,providing necessary information for the ships sailing and the countermeasures for the typhoons’ reverse movement.Finally,we make contingency plans to reduce the ship to avoid risks.