Study On The Influence Of Rainfall On The Passenger Flow In Station Of Urban Rail Transit

Rail transit passenger flow is not only the basis of the station planning and design,but also the basis of decision-making in daily operation,and the rainfall will influence on passenger flow.In order to study the influence of rainfall on rail transit passenger flow and deeply research the causes of the station of passenger flow change,Based on rail transit station passenger flow statistics data,the card data of AFC system and rainfall weather data,this paper will research the influence of the rainfall on full time period and sub-period the station passenger flow.First of all,analyzing the sources and structures of all kinds of date,considering research purposesthe and the feasibility.Combing research data;at the same time,in order to avoid the influence of factors that can not be observed in passenger flow statistics data,using the method of moving average to smooth normal weather passenger flow data.Based on the results,using nine item average method to calculate the reference value of the passenger flow in rainfall,and further to calculate the volatility of full time period and sub-period the passenger flow in the rainfall weather.Secondly,extracting clustering index based of passenger data,cluster analyzing the station passenger flow in using K-Means clustering method.Nanjing city rail transit station is divided into six categories to reflect the different nature of the land site;through the method of mathematical statistics,analysing the general influence law of rainfall weather on full time passenger flow of the categories.Again,based on the general law that the rail transit passenger flow is affected by the rainfall weather,through Multiple regression analysis method,building the model between rainfall factors,site factors and full time period the passenger flow of rail transit,detailed describing and getting the influence law between rainfall weather and different types of rail transit station passenger flow.Finally,based on traffic data and AFC card data,analyzing the rainfall influence and trip feature in different periods.Through the analysis of the influence law and features,building the regression model between the service index,site scale,rainfall and sub-period the passenger flow of rail transit stations.According to different period and different travel the purpose the model is divided into 5 segments,8 kinds.