A Study Of Rainfall Influence On Urban Rail Transit Ridership At Station Level

With the growing upsurge in the construction of urban rail transit(URT)in China recently,the demand for the laws of ridership development in the management stage of URT is becoming more and more urgent.Under this background,the characteristics of URT ridership at station level(RSL)under rain weather are analyzed.Although some scholars have extensively discussed the changing trend of the ridership under adverse weather,the quantitative research on the intrinsic relationship between RSL and multiple factors is relatively rare.The impact of rain weather on URT ridership is studied from the perspective of daily and hourly aspect,and the research methods for analyzing the influencing factors of URT ridership based on the statistical ridership data,weather data and open source data from the Internet are proposed.Firstly,the interaction relationship between URT ridership and land use is sorted out.On this basis,the conceptual structure model of the influence factors of the daily and the hourly RSL fluctuation under the rainfall condition is put forward.An index set of influencing factors of URT ridership is set up based on summarizing the research results at home and abroad.Secondly,the multi-dimensionally multi-source data sets are fused.To understand the relationship between the factors,the association rule analysis method is used to mine the rules between RSL fluctuation and the influencing factors.The K-means method is proposed to classify the rail transit stations based on the characteristics of their daily ridership patterns.Finally,suitable index sets are chosen to establish the measurement models for daily and hourly ridership based on the conceptual structure models.The structural equation models(SEM)for different type of stations are proposed with Nanjing rail transit system as a case,and the fluctuation law of RSL under rainfall conditions are obtained by analyzing the model parameters.