Risk Assessment Of Highway Transportation Of Gaseous Chemicals

With the comprehensive deepening reform in China,the process of industrialization is increasing rapidly based on fast economic growth.China has got well prepared for industrialization.Chemical industry as a pillar industry of the national economy has entered a stage of rapid development,and its comprehensive strength enhanced greatly.As important materials,gaseous hazard materials are used so widely in industries that a huge quantity of the mare transported on highway.Dangerous chemicals are numerous and complex.Transportation of gas has a higher risk because of its feature of flammable and combustible.486 transportation accidents occurred from 2014 to 2015 of hazard material are analyzed from the time of the accident cause,occurrence and the location of accidents.Identify influence factors in the transportation process.It is classified for risk factors,attributed to five major categories.To tease out the relationship of the risk factors in transportation,Binary logistic regression Modeling for risk factors is built.Based on mutual relationships of these factors and different levels,analyze the existing main problems in transportation of dangerous goods,preparing for risk assessment.With reference to the data of the probability of accident in the United States,the probability of basic road accident China is fitted by multivariate nonlinear regression equation.According to the domestic and foreign research on transportation of hazardous chemical,based on accident data and combined with analysis of influence factors,this thesis establish risk assessment modeling of highway transportation of gaseous chemical.The model depends on the probability of road accident and the severity of the consequence.Use three correction factors which analyzes by AHP and Dynamic index evaluation to make sure the authenticity of this system.In the case of LPG,to simulate the spreading scope of gaseous aided by ALOHA software.Considering the impact of traffic on the consequences of the accident,analyze the comprehensive impact of the accident in different accident scenarios.Combined with the administrative population density,ultimately determine the number of deaths.According to《Production safety accident report and the investigation and handling rules》,the consequences of the accident is divided.Then,this paper makes a K-mean clustering of population density and volume.According to the traffic accident classification,formulate matrix of the severity of the sequence.Finally,Combine the accident severity matrix with the probability of accident to form a three-dimensional matrix of accident risk.Considering the probability and consequences,the risk of accident evaluated by fuzzy logic system.According to the result,corresponding measurement to improving safety should be taken action.The risk assessment model was used to analyze the risk of carriage for the actual route from a company.Practice has shown that this model is a feasible way to evaluate the risk of road transportation of gaseous chemical.