Research On Risk Assessment For Road Transportation Of Dangerous Goods

As essential raw materials for production and life, dangerous goods are of great variety and harmful. Once they leak out in road transportation process, the consequences will be greater than ordinary traffic accidents. Not only will it cause serious consequences to residents’ health of life and safety of property along the route, but also it’s difficult to evaluate the destruction and the long-term effect to the peripheral environment. How to ensure the safety and reliability in dangerous goods transportation process is of special significance to residents’ life, property safety and social stability. So far, much work about road transportation risk of dangerous goods has been done in related domestic and foreign research, but some key problems still remain to be explored and resolved. The main research content is as follows:Starts with 874 accidents cases about the road dangerous goods transported in our country from 2000 to 2015, the paper analyses the distribution features of road grade, road type, accidents form and the reason of accidents. Considering people, vehicle, road, environment, management in the system, analyses the accidental mechanism about road transportation of dangerous goods.Generalizing the leakage diffusion model for dangerous goods, introducing the advantages and disadvantages of each model and the applicable scope. Among the gas diffusion model, Gauss model considers leakage diffusion factors in a reasonable way, and the calculation is relatively simple. Moreover, it’s the foundation of many environmental laws and regulations at home and abroad. The influence scope of accidents is the basis of the calculation of accidents consequences. Traditional computing method for influence scope of accidents doesn’t consider the impact of type of goods, weather conditions. To sum up, the paper uses Gauss model to calculate the impact area of gaseous leakage.In terms of the definition of risk, considering the risk of transportation of dangerous goods as product of accidents probability and consequences, thus the risk evaluation model for the research of dangerous goods is established. When calculating accidents probability, the paper uses multiple nonlinear regression method to revise the rate of road traffic accidents of dangerous goods in foreign countries. According to the influence factors of road traffic accidents, further revision was made in view of the 5 aspects of drivers, vehicles, the inherent characteristics of road, climate and traffic conditions. In the analysis of accidents consequences, considering the impact of accidents on population and the environment. When calculating the impact of population, the paper considers emergency rescue time and proposes emergency rescue correction factor. Risk evaluating model for social risk and environmental risk is thus established.Finally. The application research of risk evaluating model. Practice has shown that the model can commendably reflect the risk level of different routes, thus helpful in choosing the optimal routes, reducing accidents probability and consequences.