Study On Evaluation And Early Warning Methods Of Tunnel's Operation Safety Risk Of Lanzhou-Xinjiang High-speed Railway

In recent years,China Railway Corporation has attached great attention to railway safety risk management problems.Based on the high speed,high reliability and high security requirement of high-speed railway,China has put the high-speed railway safety risk management in the top priority.Lanzhou-Xinjiang High-speed Railway is the China's first high-speed railway built in the high-cold and plateau region,its geographical and natural environments are complex.There are 64 tunnels with a total length of 185.15km along the route,accounting for 10.42 percent of the total length.Due to the closure of the structure of the tunnel itself,the risk factors that affect the operation safety of tunnel are more secluded,complex and uncertain,so it is more challenging to manage the operation safety risk management of Lanzhou-Xinjiang High-speed Railway tunnel,how to make scientific evaluation and accurate early warning of operation safety risk of Lanzhou-Xinjiang High-speed Railway tunnel become an important work.The paper first identifies,analyzes and standardizes disaster-causing factors from four aspects of people,object,management and environment for Lanzhou-Xinjiang High-speed Railway tunnel operation safety.It constructs the index system of risk evaluation,and formulates relative evaluation standard of risk likelihood,risk consequences severity level,risk level and risk accepted norm of operation safety of the Lanzhou-Xinjiang High-speed Railway tunnel.Secondly,for the operation safety risk problem of Lanzhou-Xinjiang High-speed Railway tunnel,the paper constructs the evaluation index set and result set,the indexes weights are affirmed,structures the index membership functions,and the two level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established based on the above steps.Finally,the paper takes the Gaojiashan tunnel as an example,and divides downward line into 64 units of 200m unit grid to show the experimental results to verify the validity and feasibility of the model.Thirdly,the paper studies on the risk warning level division,warning indicator hazard rating and the determination of warning level based on the coupled superposition model of operation safety standards of Lanzhou-Xinjiang High-speed Railway tunnel.The paper makes release process of warning information based on the information technology means,and has proposed corresponding risk countermeasures of the risk warning indicators.Finally,the paper presents application situation of the research achievement:the author participates in China Railway Corporation's research project named "Permanent Way Safety Risk Management System of Lanzhou-Xinjiang High-speed Railway",the results of the paper are applied to subsystem's development work for the risk evaluation and warning of tunnel operation safety,the author achieves the design and implementation of the system module.