Research On Key Techniques Of Ground Delay Program Based On Uncertain Capacity Conditions

Ground Delay Program(GDP) is an important control strategy of air traffic flow management. Uncertain capacity due to complex factors, such as the weather, makes it difficult to execute efficient ground holding. Research of GDP under the condition of uncertain capacity is of great significance to improve the efficiency of ground holding, reduce the flight delay and execute more refined and accurate air traffic flow management. The paper makes in-depth research of GDP parameter character,GDP parameters forecast and GDP speed reduction strategy.First of all, the paper makes clear the connotation and definition of each GDP parameter and its function in GDP. It analyses the key parameters of GDP qualitatively and quantitatively. The paper explores the underlying links between GDP parameters and delay parameters; and it also researches the impact mechanism of single parameter and multiple parameters on ground holding.Then, GDP parameter determining model is built under the condition of uncertain capacity. The model includes two parts. One is GDP file time determining model based on conservative selection of tradeoff between air delay and ground delay. The other is GDP end time and geographical scope determining model considering GDP operation efficiency, airline, flight equity and air traffic control risks. GDP simulation platform is built to implement the simulation of model, so as to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the model.Lastly, aiming at the current situation of conservative ground delay program, the paper proposes the background of speed reduction strategy application in GDP. It analyses the feasibility of speed reduction strategy by mathematical derivation and actual flight. Moreover, the speed reduction strategy model is built with the purpose to minimize the total delay. Then the simulation of model is implemented with the GDP simulation platform to confirm the favorable profit on the aspect of total ground delay and quantity of airplanes with ground delay. It also analyses the influence of different factors such as flight voyage and aircraft type to the speed reduction strategy.