Research And Analyze On Punctuality Reliability Of Train Diagram For Passenger Dedicated Line Based On The Buffer Time

Passenger dedicated line with safety, convenience, high punctuality rate and satisfactory speed advantage for the railway brings a large number of tourists, relatively speaking,the service level of passenger dedicated line is generally required higher than the existing railway. In order to maintain and improve the attractiveness to passengers from passenger dedicated line transport, advanced transportation equipment and professional service personnel should be equipped firstly. Meanwhile, the train diagram with high quality and flexibility also should be programmed. The train delay can be adjusted by the buffer time in the train diagram, as far as possible to reduce and even avoid causing train delays in a short time. However, the buffer time setting in the train diagram restricts the train carrying capacity, if the buffer time is set too large, the train capacity can not be guaranteed; and if the buffer time set too small will have an bad impact on the train operation and service level, in extreme cases, even lead to a large area of train delay. Therefore, studying on how to set the reasonable buffer time has strong practical significance in train diagram.The main content of this paper is to study how to artificially set the buffer time in the train diagram in order to increase the reliability of passenger dedicated line punctuality in the train diagram. Firstly, introduce and analyze the related theory about buffer time and train delays, and carry out the correlation analysis of train punctuality reliability, which provides the theoretical basis for the buffer time value model established below. Secondly, on the basis of previous studies, through the train running time obeying the negative exponential distribution to explore the probability of train delays, and introduce the train delay probability formula, analyze the change trend between aftereffect delay and buffer time in the different cases, use C + + program to find aftereffect delay time relative changes in values, with the help of MATLAB to determine the buffer time critical value of the train. Finally, the buffer time value model is established which contains the delay probability, the buffer time critical value and the minimum total number of trains, and meets the train capacity with service quality demand.An example chosen Tianjin Qinhuangdao passenger dedicated line from Beidaihe to Qinhuangdao section, based on the actual train operation data analysis, use the previously proposed buffer time calculation model to obtain the preliminary buffer time, and combined with the actual operation to determine the final buffer time value. The purpose of this paper is,on the basis of ensuring the punctuality of trains running, to set the reasonable buffer time to make train diagram more flexible and meet the demand from passengers for train transportation service quality, and provide a certain degree of reference for the programming the train diagram.