Research On The Decision Making Method Of Subway Reconstruction Program

Subway construction project belongs to the type of high risk project,with characteristics of many risk factors,serious impact of disasters and wide spread.According to incomplete statistics:from 2001 to 2013,there are more than 130 large subway construction accident in our country,caused by the human and material losses is incalculable.The vast majority of disasters and accidents can be eliminated through early prevention,and some disasters occurred is in the controllable range according to the emergency plan.But some disasters will gradually evolved into a tailspin as the situation to expand or improper treatment measures,and finally lead to the subway construction accidents.After construction of the subway disasters occur,people will find ways to make post-treatment,to prevent the impact of disasters taking a step forward to expand,and gradually make the disaster state evolves to a steady state.Then on into the post-disaster reconstruction stage,and also so there will be a problem of reconstruction program decision making.This subject mainly research on the reconstruction program decision making of subway construction.Subway disaster accidents are often severely affected,once happen,great influence.When the disaster grow to a certain extent,it may affect the original construction scheme and re-new program designed to implement the reconstruction work,at this time there will be the decision making problem of reconstruction programs.After the subway construction disasters occur,especially in the face of the decision making of the complex reasons for the relationship and the disaster degree is larger,if not timely and accurate make the decision using the general analytical methods can not fully analyze the factors affecting the decision making.Then the accident treatment will not be carried out,it will also affect thefollow-up project,it will result in greater economic losses.In view of this situation,the subject use the utility theory to carry on the elaboration and the explanation,in order to provide a reference method and basis for the subway reconstruction program decision making,so as to guarantee the smooth operation of the reconstruction work.First use of WBS on the subway construction work structure decomposition,according to statistical methods to analyze the subway construction disaster features.Conclude that collapse is the most important and the most damaging disasters.Using RBS analyze the causes of the collapse of subway construction disasters in the main subway construction engineering,in order to have a better understanding of collapsed disasters and provide critical control points for safety management in the reconstruction process.Secondly,by the characteristics of the subway construction and the principle of selecting indicators in decision making,screen the influencing factors on decision making of subway construction reconstruction program based on literature search and expert investigation,to determine the factors influencing on decision making.Using the method of AHP(Analytical Hierarchy Process)to analysis and determine the weight of factors indicators,combined with DEMATEL(Decision Test and Evaluation Laboratory method)to correct the weight of factors indicators,so that the index weight is more reasonable.Finally,based on the principles and the superiority of the utility decision making,apply utility theory to analysis the decision making of reconstruction program after disaster occurring,and establish the decision making model based on utility function.Ultimately obtains a set of decision making method based on utility theory,so as to provide guidance for the optimal solution decision making,and use an example to verify the applicability of the model.