Study On Impacts Of Factors On Transport Carbon Emissions In Beijing With STIRPAT

With the development of the economy,the carbon emissions from the transportation industry in China have been increasing.Reducing energy consumption and carbon emission has become an important way to relieve the tension of energy supply and build a low-carbon eco-city.Beijing,as an international metropolis,with the expansion of urban space and the increase in car ownership,transport,its carbon emissions continued to grow.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the key factors influencing urban transportation carbon emissions and to clarify the influence degree,and to put forward reasonable countermeasures and suggestions to realize energy saving and emission reduction.Based on STIRPAT model and partial least-squares regression,this paper studies the factors that affect Beijing's transport carbon emissions from 1997 to 2014,mainly investigating economic,demographic,technological and traffic-related indicators.The results show that:(1)Beijing's economic level continues to develop,the total population size increased and the total energy consumption increased year by year,while the proportion of traffic carbon emissions also increased.With the improvement of technological innovation,the utilization rate of energy is also increasing,the energy intensity is decreasing and the energy intensity of the tertiary industry is lower than that of the other two industries.As the economic level increases,the population migration and energy demand increase Such as increasing year by year,civilian car ownership is also increasing year by year.(2)Economic growth and expansion of population scale are the two most important factors to promote the increase of carbon emissions in Beijing.The increase in the number of civilian vehicles will lead to a decrease in the proportion of people traveling by bus,thus further increasing the carbon emissions.Increased passenger and freight traffic volumes all contribute to the increase in total carbon emissions,but the role of passenger traffic is more pronounced.(3)The increase of economic level and the expansion of population scale are the two most important factors to promote the increase of traffic carbon emissions in Beijing.The increase in the number of civilian vehicles will lead to a decrease in the proportion of people traveling by bus,thus further increasing the amount of carbon emissions.Increased passenger and freight traffic volumes all contribute to the increase in total carbon emissions,but the role of passenger traffic is more pronounced.(4)Energy intensity in the research results show that its reduction has actually contributed to the increase in traffic carbon emissions,but its impact is not significant.Technological progress will promote energy efficiency,but because of the rebound effect,it reduces the amount of carbon emission reductions can not offset other causes of increased carbon emissions,however,the reduction of energy intensity is still in the energy-saving Emission reduction play an important role.At last,this paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions on energy saving and emission reduction of Beijing 's transportation carbon emissions from different perspectives based on the actual situation of Beijing.