Early-warning For Environment-economy System Based On Boom Analysis In Dalian,China

In a globalized world,with the rapid development of economy,environmental protection has become the focus of people`s attention.To achieve a win-win situation between economic growth and environmental protection,it is of great significance to strengthen the intensity of environmental pollution management and improve the ecological quality scientifically and effectively.Dalian city is taken as a case study.The boom analysis,grey correlation analysis and artificial neural network are used to construct the environment-economy early-warning system,monitoring the environment-economy development status of the system.The work in this thesis is divided into three parts:(1)firstly,this study identifies and analyzes the situation of environment and economy development of Dalian by official statistical data collection and analysis;(2)secondly,an early-warning system for environment-economy of Dalian is established by the boom analysis,which includes building early-warning indicators system,determining their boundaries and weight,and addressing the comprehensive early-warning limits and indexes;(3)finally,the research monitors and makes a comprehensive early-warning for the operation status of environment-economy system of Dalian though the early-warning system.The main research results are shown as follows:(1)the economic development of Dalian is dominant in the northeastern region,but there is still a big gap compared with other sub-provincial cities,especially the coastal cities of the same type.The industrial structure of city is generally reasonable,but some problems exist in the internal structure of each industry,which are difficult to make adjustment.The overall environment is good,but individual pollution problems cannot be ignored.For atmospheric condition,SO2 pollution is very serious,inhalable particles pollution is of an increasing concern,and the air quality index in the number of days of pollution increased year by year.For water,the city's six major rivers are subject to varying degrees of pollution,and pollutions of some individual monitoring sections are increasing.And the area of polluted waters near the coast has been reduced,but the pollution of local oceans still remains on the agenda.(2)By monitoring and analyzing the situation of environment-economy system in recent ten years and making the early-warning of the system's operation in the next ten years.(1)The monitoring result shows that the overall situation of Dalian's environment-economy system is in the state of boom decrease and got colder and the development was hindered from 2006 to 2015.In addition to a small degree of rebound in 2014,the overall development trend was gentle in the rest of the period.Thus,it needs to take appropriate measures to stimulate the development of the environment-economy system.(2)The early-warning result shows that the overall development of environment-economy system of Dalian will be in the boom stable state and ran well during the period from 2016 to 2025.Nevertheless,the comprehensive early-warning index was low stating that the environment-economy system will be positioned as the lower level of the boom stable interval,which may be classified as "blue light",indicating boom decrease and slow development.Additionally,it is necessary to guard against some individual early-warning indicators of overheating or excessive coldness in the system so as to avoid the negative impact on the development of environment-economy system and its uncoordinated development.This study starts from the regional environment-economy system,making monitoring and early-warning analysis of the operation of Dalian's environment-economy system,and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the research results.Therefore,the research is aimed at providing decision support for the coordination and stability of environmental and economic development of Dalian and can be extended to other regions.