Research On The Decoupling Relationship Between Economic Growth And Net Carbon Emission And Its Driving Factors Based On Analysis Of Cost Behavior

As the developing rapidity of industrialization and urbanization in China speed up,economic rapid development is mainly at the cost of energy consumption,which leads to large amounts of carbon emission.In 2015,China made a promise that carbon emission peak would come by around 2030 at the Paris Conference on Climate Change,pledging to bring the total carbon emission down,that is,forcing economic development pattern into low-carbon development by setting emission target.In October the Party Central Committee put forward a principle of green development so that China’s economic development could be low-carbon and normalization.Economic growth and carbon emission reduction are not merely the need of fulfilling China’s commitment to reaching carbon emission peak,but also the demand of realizing green and low-carbon development.Realizing economic growth decoupling with carbon emission(i.e.Ecomomic growth and carbon emission reduction)are the ost urgent and most realistic target in current development of China.Consequently,analyzing decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emission and its driving factors more scientifically and accurately has great theoretical and practical significances on China’s economy.This paper filtered data from China Statistical Yearbook and 30 provinces’ statistical yearbooks from 2004 to 2015,and had expanding and innovative research on relationship between economic growth and carbon emission as well as its driving factors by using Tapio development model,balance-method and feasible generalized least squares in chief.Firstly,this paper analyzed China’s and each region’s development of net carbon emission spatially and temporally in order to know net carobon emission clearly.Secondly,judging China’s and each region’s decoupling relationship between economic growth and net carbon emission,comparatively analyzing decoupling of marginal carbon emission and decoupling of net carbon emission so as to calculate leverage effect of forest carbon sequestration.Lastly,this paper researched on driving factors’ contribution degree of decoupling relationship between economic growth and net carbon emission in the process of dynamic evolution.In addition,relationship between decoupling of net carbon emission and variable driving factors were studied by using FGLS,hoping to find some Countermeasures or enlightenments to realize decoupling relationship between economic development and net carbon emission as early as possible in China and its regions.Through researches this paper mainly came to the following conclusions:First,In the circumstance that net carbon emission slows,marginal carbon emission and forest carbon sink are unevenly distributions in the space.Barycenter of marginal carbon emission moves to the northwest,but barycenter of forest carbon sequestration moves to the southwest.Second,judgment of decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emission can be more accurate when take forest carbon sequestration into consideration.Ranging around critical value of decoupling,leverage effect of forest carbon sequestration has a key impact on decoupling type division,which can avoid faulty judgment that economic growth decoupled with carbon emission in advance.Third,in the dynamic evolution process of decoupling relationship between economic growth and net carbon emission,energy conservation effect is the leading driving factor and emission reduction effect is the secondary driving factor,and forest carbon sequestration plays a less role.Fourth,energy consumption scale,population size and energy consumption structure they are all positively correlated with decoupling of net carbon emission.There into,the higher the proportion of coal consumption,the more difficult to realize economic growth decoupling with net carbon emission.Industrial structure,urbanization rate and technological progress they all have a negative correlation with decoupling of net carbon emission.Wherein,improving the proportion of secondary industry will promote realizing decoupling relationship between economic growth and net carbon emission as soon as possible.