The Emission Inventories Prediction Of SO₂ And NO_x In 2020 And 2050 In China Mainland Under IPCC Scenarios

Since more than 30 years of reform and opening-up,the development of our economy grow rapidly.But the development also consumed a lot of energy,coupled with the unreasonable structure of energy consumption and industrial economic structure,a large number of air pollutants were generated in the process of consumption,which resulted in serious environmental problems.Especially air pollution,which seriously endangering people’s quality of life and health.The prediction of atmospheric emission inventory was beneficial to the estimation of the total emission amount of an air pollutant emission source in a certain area,it was an essential means to improve the quality of the environment.Governments at all levels have gradually applied the method to the formulation of pollutant emission reduction policies,and the forecast of air pollution emission inventory has a guiding role in determining the total control target.In the method of predicted the total amount of pollutants,this paper used the scenario analysis method,compared to the traditional prediction method,the scenario analysis can fully take into account the influence of external driving factors.For example,the scenario analysis in this paper considered the influence of the change of GDP,energy intensity and energy structure which led to more accurate forecasting results.This article referred to the IPCC scenario design method and set up three kinds of social economic scenario,using IPAT equation to predict the future economic and social development in different scenarios（A1B,A2 and B1 scenarios）in 2020 and 2050.The emission inventory of SO₂ and NO_x of different scenarios of china in 2020 and 2050 were established based on fuel consumption data and it’s corresponding emission factors,the fuel consumption data were predicted by sectors analysis and the new emission factors due to more strict pollution control measures were also used.The results showed that in 2020,the SO₂ and NO_x emissions were the highest in the A2 scenario,the A1 B was the second,and the B1 emission was the least.By the year of 2050,the emissions of A1 B and B1 scenario was declining,especially the B1 sceneraio.but for the A2 scenario,although there were some pollution control measures,the SO₂ and NO_x emissions still had a certain growth;Under different scenarios,the emission of SO₂ and NO_x declined by 4.73 and 4.21,2.24 and 3.35,1.52 and 2.04 million tons respectively owing to the pollution control measures were strengthened;Compared with the past,SO₂ and NO_x emission distribution in the sector has no obvious change,SO₂,NO_x emissions mainly come from industrial,transportation and power industry,so the above sectors are still the key sectors of air pollutant control in China.