Assessment And Predication Of Water Environment Security Of Jiangxi Province In The Process Of Urbanization

As we all know,water environment is not only an important part of the ecological environment,but also is an necessary foundation to protect people’s lives and promote the healthy development of the society.For a country and a region,city is the core part of its economic development,accelerating the urbanization is the third objectives of China’s strategic initiatives.With the development of urbanization,the ecological environment is bound to pose a potential and realistic threat.In recent years,the water quality of major cities in China is decreasing significantly,and a series of water pollution emergencies occur frequently.Therefore,it is an important theoretical significance and practical meaning to reduce the security risks caused by water environmental barriers,to explore the correlation between water environment safety and city development,and promote stable and healthy development of the city.This paper takes Jiangxi province as an example,summarizes the present situation of water environment at home and abroad,with “pressure-state-society” model and the specific situation of Jiangxi province in recent years,construct Jiangxi water environment safety evaluation system,which consists of 27 indexes of 3 layers.using the comprehensive application of entropy method,function evaluation and comprehensive index method to evaluate the security situation of the water environment in Jiangxi.The results show that during 2006 to 2009,the change of Jiangxi province environmental safety degree is a wavy upward trend,in lower-middle.From 2010 to 2015,Jiangxi province environmental safety in the third stage,in middle level,except for a few years fluctuations in Jiangxi Province,the comprehensive safety is overall upward trend.After a comprehensive analysis of Jiangxi province during 2006-2015 water environment security situation,according to the grey forecast theory,using GM(1,1)model,use the 2006-2015 water environment safety degree as the raw data,after the accuracy test and proved that the model is qualified,it shows Jiangxi province in the next five years is an overall upward trend.Since 2016,Jiangxi province comprehensive safety prediction environment will remain in high level,and formally enter the excellent rating in 2019.Social economic system,ecological environment and water environment system are in comprehensive safety positively affect.and the social economic system safety degree prediction curve and water environment comprehensive safety prediction curve cross around 2018 and after 2018 the social economic system safety degree prediction curve will be located in the comprehensive water environment prediction curve.Itshows that the change of the social security system has a positive relationship to the comprehensive safety degree and the development of the social economic system security is faster than the development of the comprehensive safety degree.Finally,aiming at the existing problems and combined with the security situation and trend of Jiangxi province,put forward suggestions and countermeasures for the protection of governance environment of Jiangxi province.