Research On The Influential Factors Of Carbon Emission Of Power Industry In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On LMDI Model

Global warming caused by carbon dioxide（CO₂）and other greenhouse gas emissions has become an important political,economic and environmental problem,therefore,the international community launched extensive discussions and active cooperation.As the global biggest CO₂ emitter,China has made solemn commitments for reducing the CO₂ emission and decomposed the CO₂ emission control target into the region（provinces and cities）and industry level,striving to achieve the 2030 emission reduction targets layer upon layer.Meanwhile,based on China’s resource endowment conditions,the power industry,one of the key areas of energy conservation and emission reduction,is faced with the problem of high energy consumption and large scale of CO₂ emission.With the integrated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,this study intends to identify the influential factors and reduction potential of CO₂ emission in the area of power industry and explore scientific and reasonable reduction paths.It is of great practical significance for the realization of low-carbon development of the power industry,the integrated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the construction of low-carbon cities,and the early realization of regional emission reduction targets.The thesis takes the CO₂ emission of power industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object.Firstly,we introduced the development status of the power industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and estimated the CO₂ emission using the IPCC carbon accounting methods based on the energy consumption data of power industry from 1995 to 2014,then analyzed the characteristics and existing problems.Secondly,we established the hierarchical LMDI decomposition model,starting from the perspective of the power industry chain,including power generation,transmission and final consumption,and then decomposed driving factors of CO₂ emission into effects of fuel mix,the coal consumption rate,etc..And results show that: the factors that drive the growth of CO₂ emission from power industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are economic scale,population size,transmission and distribution losses and industrial structure in order,the factors that drive the CO₂ emission reduction are production sectors’ electricity intensity,the coal consumption rate,the ratio of electricity generation and consumption,household electricity intensity,power generation structure and fuel mix in order.Finally,we set up three development scenarios of power industry in theBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2020 based on LMDI prediction model and scenario analysis.One hand,we analyzed the CO₂ emission reduction potential during 2015-2020.On the other hand,we provided policy suggestions on promoting the CO₂ emission reduction of power industry from the aspects of low carbon development plan,power demand side management,energy structure adjustment,and low carbon power and green electricity transfer channel construction.